Monastir: Nicolas Tepmahc vs Lorenzo Giustino

13 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Lorenzo Giustino (76%) · Lorenzo Giustino at 98¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 17

Nicolas Tepmahc3¢Lorenzo Giustino97¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lorenzo Giustino

Consensus Traders

Lorenzo Giustino 76%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.1K

Combined PnL

-$574.1

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 97.5¢

+11% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralLorenzo Giustino at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Giustino

13 of 17 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nicolas Tepmahc3%

Lorenzo Giustino98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lorenzo Giustino13 traders

Total Value$14.5K

Total Shares14,788

Combined PnL+$182.75

Nicolas Tepmahc4 traders

Total Value$463.27

Total Shares8,119

Combined PnL-$756.85

Lorenzo Giustino — 76%Nicolas Tepmahc — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Lorenzo Giustino. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpLorenzo Giustino 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLorenzo Giustino 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedLorenzo Giustino 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Lorenzo Giustino 71% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 86.1¢	$6.6K	$7.4K	+$868.5	25% 219-662 (881)
TH thirdt1me	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 90.1¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$25.44	39% 78-123 (201)
38 38791873984189	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 89.9¢	$2.2K	$1.8K	-$387.33	48% 898-974 (1872)
MA MadridTime	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 90.8¢	$649.14	$640.22	-$8.92	25% 220-643 (863)
FL Flaznorp	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 88.4¢	$804.64	$598.65	-$205.98	50% 1414-1418 (2832)
VE Venusian	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 93.1¢	$628.52	$573.7	-$36.71	25% 219-662 (881)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 13.9¢	$988	$392.23	-$595.77	54% 1631-1394 (3025)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 85.8¢	$253.5	$236.66	-$16.85	56% 3802-2968 (6770)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 11.1¢	$250.76	$213.34	-$37.42	25% 221-650 (871)
└ Nicolas Tepmahc leg	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 11.1¢	$167.76	$121.34	-$46.42
└ Lorenzo Giustino leg	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 83¢	$83	$92	+$9
tradecraft<$100	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 81¢	$76.99	$87.45	+$10.46	17% 115-572 (687)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 83.4¢	$50.85	$59.48	+$8.63	15% 84-464 (548)
TH thestingsnake	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 89.4¢	$129.33	$50.8	+$7.79	18% 78-346 (424)
alpheclabs2CTR	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 26¢	$159.9	$49.2	-$110.7	46% 78-90 (168)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 26¢	$65	$20	-$45	53% 5388-4864 (10252)
BA babybells<$100	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 73¢	$65.74	$9.96	-$32.68	18% 84-374 (458)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 79¢	$3.95	$4.6	+$0.65	24% 163-507 (670)
VeryLucky888<$100	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 79¢	$3.76	$4.38	+$0.62	50% 240-242 (482)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Nicolas Tepmahcavg 5.9¢	$7.22	$1.85	-$5.38	49% 66-68 (134)

Limousin

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$6,578.24

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$868.5

Record

25%

219-662 (881)

thirdt1me

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$3,084.95

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$25.44

Record

39%

78-123 (201)

38791873984189

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$2,222.27

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$387.33

Record

48%

898-974 (1872)

MadridTime

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$649.14

Value

$640.22

PnL

-$8.92

Record

25%

220-643 (863)

Flaznorp

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$804.64

Value

$598.65

PnL

-$205.98

Record

50%

1414-1418 (2832)

Venusian

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$628.52

Value

$573.7

PnL

-$36.71

Record

25%

219-662 (881)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$988

Value

$392.23

PnL

-$595.77

Record

54%

1631-1394 (3025)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$253.5

Value

$236.66

PnL

-$16.85

Record

56%

3802-2968 (6770)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$250.76

Value

$213.34

PnL

-$37.42

Record

25%

221-650 (871)

Both legs:

Nicolas Tepmahc$167.7611.1¢-$46.42

Lorenzo Giustino$8383¢+$9

tradecraft<$100

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$76.99

Value

$87.45

PnL

+$10.46

Record

17%

115-572 (687)

BillBenter2026<$100

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$50.85

Value

$59.48

PnL

+$8.63

Record

15%

84-464 (548)

thestingsnake

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$129.33

Value

$50.8

PnL

+$7.79

Record

18%

78-346 (424)

alpheclabs2CTR

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$159.9

Value

$49.2

PnL

-$110.7

Record

46%

78-90 (168)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$65

Value

$20

PnL

-$45

Record

53%

5388-4864 (10252)

babybells<$100

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$65.74

Value

$9.96

PnL

-$32.68

Record

18%

84-374 (458)

ameisgoat11<$100

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$3.95

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$0.65

Record

24%

163-507 (670)

VeryLucky888<$100

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$3.76

Value

$4.38

PnL

+$0.62

Record

50%

240-242 (482)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Nicolas Tepmahc

Invested

$7.22

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$5.38

Record

49%

66-68 (134)

Research grade

NeutralLorenzo Giustino at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Giustino

13 of 17 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Lorenzo Giustino. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpLorenzo Giustino 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLorenzo Giustino 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedLorenzo Giustino 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Lorenzo Giustino 71% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lorenzo Giustino wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.