Villa Maria: Juan Bautista Torres vs Nicolas Bruna
13 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Juan Bautista Torres (76%) · Juan Bautista Torres at 96¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Juan Bautista Torres
17
Juan Bautista Torres 76%
1 arb excluded
$7.7K
-$431.73
94.1¢ → 95.8¢
+2% since entry · 13 traders
Research grade
NeutralJuan Bautista Torres at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
13 of 17 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
12 traders
Top 2 hold 50%
Freshness
Mature
17h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Juan Bautista Torres. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime | Juan Bautista Torresavg 96.9¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$40.1 | 51% 1089-1037 (2126) |
FL Flaznorp | Juan Bautista Torresavg 91¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$63.6 | 51% 24202-22938 (47140) |
FL flatbarrel | Juan Bautista Torresavg 90.4¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$62.9 | 58% 2790-1998 (4788) |
VE Venusian | Juan Bautista Torresavg 96.7¢ | $936.83 | $923.55 | -$13.28 | 52% 1153-1075 (2228) |
LI Limousin | Juan Bautista Torresavg 96¢ | $626.98 | $621.24 | -$5.75 | 54% 1184-1023 (2207) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Juan Bautista Torresavg 94.8¢ | $378.33 | $380.44 | +$2.1 | 51% 1789-1707 (3496) |
38 38791873984189 | Juan Bautista Torresavg 94¢ | $1.5K | $375.9 | -$508.44 | 48% 59224-63218 (122442) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Juan Bautista Torresavg 97.1¢ | $222.14 | $216.91 | -$3.75 | 50% 20715-20970 (41685) |
LI LightParadoxARB<$100 | Juan Bautista Torresavg 95.6¢ | $169.23 | $156 | -$13.22 | 52% 1140-1038 (2178) |
| └ Juan Bautista Torres leg | Juan Bautista Torresavg 95.6¢ | $92.47 | $91.67 | -$0.81 | |
| └ Nicolas Bruna leg | Nicolas Brunaavg 6.3¢ | $76.75 | $64.34 | -$12.42 | |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Juan Bautista Torresavg 94.7¢ | $50 | $47.65 | +$0.28 | 57% 19070-14108 (33178) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Juan Bautista Torresavg 90¢ | $32.3 | $33.71 | +$1.41 | 58% 45420-32909 (78329) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Nicolas Brunaavg 3.2¢ | $18.84 | $31.67 | +$12.82 | 47% 11065-12394 (23459) |
DI dips.<$100 | Juan Bautista Torresavg 96.1¢ | $28.83 | $28.44 | -$0.07 | 47% 10348-11772 (22120) |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Juan Bautista Torresavg 92.4¢ | $12.09 | $12.41 | +$0.32 | 60% 4339-2910 (7249) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Nicolas Brunaavg 3¢ | $5.61 | $9.91 | +$4.3 | 51% 4643-4468 (9111) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Nicolas Brunaavg 8.2¢ | $16.35 | $9.35 | -$6.48 | 53% 22496-19712 (42208) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Juan Bautista Torresavg 90¢ | $4.5 | $4.74 | +$0.26 | 52% 8574-7820 (16394) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Nicolas Brunaavg 11.5¢ | $3.45 | $1.59 | -$1.86 | 46% 8405-9865 (18270) |
Invested
$1,969.2
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$40.1
Record
51%
1089-1037 (2126)
Invested
$1,471.86
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$63.6
Record
51%
24202-22938 (47140)
Invested
$1,318.49
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$62.9
Record
58%
2790-1998 (4788)
Invested
$936.83
Value
$923.55
PnL
-$13.28
Record
52%
1153-1075 (2228)
Invested
$626.98
Value
$621.24
PnL
-$5.75
Record
54%
1184-1023 (2207)
Invested
$378.33
Value
$380.44
PnL
+$2.1
Record
51%
1789-1707 (3496)
Invested
$1,512.08
Value
$375.9
PnL
-$508.44
Record
48%
59224-63218 (122442)
Invested
$222.14
Value
$216.91
PnL
-$3.75
Record
50%
20715-20970 (41685)
Invested
$169.23
Value
$156
PnL
-$13.22
Record
52%
1140-1038 (2178)
Both legs:
Invested
$50
Value
$47.65
PnL
+$0.28
Record
57%
19070-14108 (33178)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$32.3
Value
$33.71
PnL
+$1.41
Record
58%
45420-32909 (78329)
Invested
$18.84
Value
$31.67
PnL
+$12.82
Record
47%
11065-12394 (23459)
Invested
$28.83
Value
$28.44
PnL
-$0.07
Record
47%
10348-11772 (22120)
Invested
$12.09
Value
$12.41
PnL
+$0.32
Record
60%
4339-2910 (7249)
Invested
$5.61
Value
$9.91
PnL
+$4.3
Record
51%
4643-4468 (9111)
Invested
$16.35
Value
$9.35
PnL
-$6.48
Record
53%
22496-19712 (42208)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$4.74
PnL
+$0.26
Record
52%
8574-7820 (16394)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$3.45
Value
$1.59
PnL
-$1.86
Record
46%
8405-9865 (18270)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
MadridTime
Juan Bautista Torres — $1.9K
Flaznorp
Juan Bautista Torres — $1.5K
flatbarrel
Juan Bautista Torres — $1.4K
Venusian
Juan Bautista Torres — $923.55
Limousin
Juan Bautista Torres — $621.24
0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080
Juan Bautista Torres — $380.44
38791873984189
Juan Bautista Torres — $375.9
omnibus-076daa
Juan Bautista Torres — $216.91
LightParadox
ARBArbitrage — excluded
BillBenter2026
Juan Bautista Torres — $47.65