Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Thiago Seyboth Wild, while the market favors Camilo Ugo Carabelli (74%). 6 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Costa do Sauipe: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli

6 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Thiago Seyboth Wild (40%) · Thiago Seyboth Wild at 27¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 15

Thiago Seyboth Wild27¢Camilo Ugo Carabelli73¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Consensus Traders

Thiago Seyboth Wild 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$8.25

Smart Money Entry

52.5¢ → 26.5¢

-50% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidThiago Seyboth Wild at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thiago Seyboth Wild

6 of 15 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Camilo Ugo Carabelli 74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thiago Seyboth Wild27%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thiago Seyboth Wild6 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares7,555

Combined PnL-$135.9

Camilo Ugo Carabelli9 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,176

Combined PnL+$144.16

Thiago Seyboth Wild — 40%Camilo Ugo Carabelli — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Thiago Seyboth Wild. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleThiago Seyboth Wild 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrThiago Seyboth Wild 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedThiago Seyboth Wild 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Thiago Seyboth Wild 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Thiago Seyboth Wildavg 52.6¢	$3.7K	$3.5K	+$69.71	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
RN1	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 67¢	$836.86	$918.04	+$81.19	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	Thiago Seyboth Wildavg 32.3¢	$695.09	$614.81	-$80.28	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
└ Thiago Seyboth Wild leg	Thiago Seyboth Wildavg 32.3¢	$550.39	$451.19	-$99.2
└ Camilo Ugo Carabelli leg	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 65¢	$144.7	$163.62	+$18.92
38 38791873984189	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 67¢	$280.73	$307.97	+$27.23	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Thiago Seyboth Wildavg 52.4¢	$443.09	$254.21	-$188.88	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
└ Thiago Seyboth Wild leg	Thiago Seyboth Wildavg 52.4¢	$390.07	$197.1	-$192.96
└ Camilo Ugo Carabelli leg	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 68.2¢	$53.02	$57.11	+$4.09
1L 1lovejump	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 67.8¢	$229.97	$244.01	+$14.03	53% 851-750 (1601)
0xheavy888CTR	Thiago Seyboth Wildavg 52.9¢	$381.89	$220.08	-$161.81	56% 8753-6943 (15696)
VE Venusian<$100	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 63¢	$59.41	$69.31	+$9.9	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Thiago Seyboth Wildavg 52.3¢	$49.19	$50.29	+$1.1	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Thiago Seyboth Wildavg 52.3¢	$94.2	$49.5	-$44.7	49% 3720-3945 (7665)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 59¢	$29.5	$32.25	+$2.75	60% 4594-3102 (7696)
LI LightParadox<$100	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 45¢	$13.34	$22.09	+$8.75	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
PA pauleta23<$100	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 74.2¢	$18.55	$18.38	-$0.17	65% 25411-13605 (39016)
machinelearned<$100	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 71¢	$14.2	$14.7	+$0.5	54% 10222-8700 (18922)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Thiago Seyboth Wildavg 28¢	$4.2	$3.98	-$0.22	52% 6045-5577 (11622)
LI Limousin<$100	Camilo Ugo Carabelliavg 74¢	$3.7	$3.68	-$0.03	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Thiago Seyboth Wildavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.68	+$0.03	52% 9497-8605 (18102)

VeryLucky888CTR

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Invested

$3,748.41

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$69.71

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

RN1

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$836.86

Value

$918.04

PnL

+$81.19

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Invested

$695.09

Value

$614.81

PnL

-$80.28

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

Both legs:

Thiago Seyboth Wild$550.3932.3¢-$99.2

Camilo Ugo Carabelli$144.765¢+$18.92

38791873984189

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$280.73

Value

$307.97

PnL

+$27.23

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Invested

$443.09

Value

$254.21

PnL

-$188.88

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

Both legs:

Thiago Seyboth Wild$390.0752.4¢-$192.96

Camilo Ugo Carabelli$53.0268.2¢+$4.09

1lovejump

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$229.97

Value

$244.01

PnL

+$14.03

Record

53%

851-750 (1601)

0xheavy888CTR

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Invested

$381.89

Value

$220.08

PnL

-$161.81

Record

56%

8753-6943 (15696)

Venusian<$100

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$59.41

Value

$69.31

PnL

+$9.9

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Invested

$49.19

Value

$50.29

PnL

+$1.1

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

efntrickCTR<$100

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Invested

$94.2

Value

$49.5

PnL

-$44.7

Record

49%

3720-3945 (7665)

thestingsnake<$100

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$29.5

Value

$32.25

PnL

+$2.75

Record

60%

4594-3102 (7696)

LightParadox<$100

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$13.34

Value

$22.09

PnL

+$8.75

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

pauleta23<$100

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$18.55

Value

$18.38

PnL

-$0.17

Record

65%

25411-13605 (39016)

machinelearned<$100

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$14.2

Value

$14.7

PnL

+$0.5

Record

54%

10222-8700 (18922)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Invested

$4.2

Value

$3.98

PnL

-$0.22

Record

52%

6045-5577 (11622)

Limousin<$100

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Invested

$3.7

Value

$3.68

PnL

-$0.03

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

9497-8605 (18102)

Research grade

AvoidThiago Seyboth Wild at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Thiago Seyboth Wild

6 of 15 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Camilo Ugo Carabelli 74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Thiago Seyboth Wild. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleThiago Seyboth Wild 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrThiago Seyboth Wild 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedThiago Seyboth Wild 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Thiago Seyboth Wild 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thiago Seyboth Wild wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.