Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-11-07?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 43¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 7

Yes57¢No43¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$47.8

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 43¢

-16% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes57%

No43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$441.2

Total Shares882

Combined PnL-$77.61

Yes6 traders

Total Value$511.81

Total Shares849

Combined PnL+$125.41

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 41.5¢	$2.3K	$2.8K	+$486.03	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40¢	$1.1K	$1.6K	+$442.74
└ No leg	Noavg 41.5¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$43.29
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 54.3¢	$995.04	$909.24	-$85.79	57% 2111-1562 (3673)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54.3¢	$566.64	$584.16	+$17.53
└ No leg	Noavg 56.7¢	$428.4	$325.08	-$103.32
VE VenusianARB<$100	Noavg 47.3¢	$448.75	$447.97	-$0.77	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
└ No leg	Noavg 47.3¢	$382.4	$347.97	-$34.43
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37.2¢	$66.35	$100	+$33.66
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Noavg 48.9¢	$390.49	$344.82	-$45.67	46% 1791-2100 (3891)
WA WagerWizard	Yesavg 39.1¢	$154.98	$206.21	+$51.23	84% 15071-2930 (18001)
MA MadridTime	Yesavg 37.2¢	$105.23	$158.62	+$53.39	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100	Yesavg 60.2¢	$133.22	$116.39	-$16.84	59% 33226-23391 (56617)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 60.2¢	$91.14	$84.77	-$6.37
└ No leg	Noavg 57.2¢	$42.08	$31.62	-$10.46
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Yesavg 49.7¢	$81.27	$91.65	+$10.38	62% 1925-1170 (3095)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 64¢	$64.34	$71.99	+$7.65	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34¢	$29.5	$48.58	+$19.08
└ No leg	Noavg 64¢	$34.84	$23.41	-$11.43
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Noavg 54.1¢	$65.45	$52.03	-$13.42	47% 9568-10685 (20253)
dips.CTR<$100	Noavg 58.2¢	$36.73	$27.13	-$9.61	47% 11022-12642 (23664)
tradecraft<$100	Yesavg 31.4¢	$12.45	$22.21	+$9.76	51% 6512-6277 (12789)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Yesavg 53.3¢	$19.07	$19.72	+$0.65	64% 5376-2995 (8371)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 65.2¢	$23.38	$15.43	-$7.95	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$13.41	$13.41	+$0	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 66¢	$2.76	$1.8	-$0.96	51% 27227-25781 (53008)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$2,325.02

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$486.03

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

Both legs:

Yes$1,108.240¢+$442.74

No$1,216.8141.5¢+$43.29

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$995.04

Value

$909.24

PnL

-$85.79

Record

57%

2111-1562 (3673)

Both legs:

Yes$566.6454.3¢+$17.53

No$428.456.7¢-$103.32

VenusianARB<$100

Invested

$448.75

Value

$447.97

PnL

-$0.77

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

Both legs:

No$382.447.3¢-$34.43

Yes$66.3537.2¢+$33.66

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Invested

$390.49

Value

$344.82

PnL

-$45.67

Record

46%

1791-2100 (3891)

WagerWizard

Yes

Invested

$154.98

Value

$206.21

PnL

+$51.23

Record

84%

15071-2930 (18001)

MadridTime

Yes

Invested

$105.23

Value

$158.62

PnL

+$53.39

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$133.22

Value

$116.39

PnL

-$16.84

Record

59%

33226-23391 (56617)

Both legs:

Invested

$81.27

Value

$91.65

PnL

+$10.38

Record

62%

1925-1170 (3095)

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$64.34

Value

$71.99

PnL

+$7.65

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

Both legs:

Yes$29.534¢+$19.08

No$34.8464¢-$11.43

lryyyCTR<$100

Invested

$65.45

Value

$52.03

PnL

-$13.42

Record

47%

9568-10685 (20253)

dips.CTR<$100

Invested

$36.73

Value

$27.13

PnL

-$9.61

Record

47%

11022-12642 (23664)

tradecraft<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.45

Value

$22.21

PnL

+$9.76

Record

51%

6512-6277 (12789)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.07

Value

$19.72

PnL

+$0.65

Record

64%

5376-2995 (8371)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$23.38

Value

$15.43

PnL

-$7.95

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.41

Value

$13.41

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$2.76

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$0.96

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 43%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.2%

43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.