Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Duke Blue Devils, while the market favors Michigan State Spartans (63%). 10 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Michigan State Spartans vs. Duke Blue Devils

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Duke Blue Devils (63%) · Duke Blue Devils at 38¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 11

Michigan State Spartans63¢Duke Blue Devils37¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Duke Blue Devils

Consensus Traders

Duke Blue Devils 63%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 37.5¢

-38% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidDuke Blue Devils at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Duke Blue Devils

10 of 16 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Michigan State Spartans 63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Michigan State Spartans63%

Duke Blue Devils38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Duke Blue Devils10 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares14,051

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Michigan State Spartans6 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares6,398

Combined PnL+$474.14

Duke Blue Devils — 63%Michigan State Spartans — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Duke Blue Devils. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMichigan State Spartans 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDuke Blue Devils 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedDuke Blue Devils 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Duke Blue Devils 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Duke Blue Devilsavg 73.9¢	$4.7K	$3.7K	$-1.0K	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
FL Flaznorp	Michigan State Spartansavg 60¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$205.8	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
TA takeormakeCTR	Duke Blue Devilsavg 43.5¢	$2.5K	$1.9K	-$479.55	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
RN1ARB<$100	Michigan State Spartansavg 53¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$1.15	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
└ Michigan State Spartans leg	Michigan State Spartansavg 53¢	$932.49	$1.1K	+$185.25
└ Duke Blue Devils leg	Duke Blue Devilsavg 55¢	$547.22	$363.13	-$184.1
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Duke Blue Devilsavg 61.6¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$3.43	48% 947-1017 (1964)
└ Michigan State Spartans leg	Michigan State Spartansavg 37.9¢	$382.55	$580.24	+$189.98
└ Duke Blue Devils leg	Duke Blue Devilsavg 61.6¢	$622.25	$429.55	-$193.41
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Michigan State Spartansavg 38.7¢	$716.67	$837.92	+$121.26	54% 1656-1433 (3089)
SU suitcase6628	Michigan State Spartansavg 58¢	$580	$620	+$40	65% 175-96 (271)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Duke Blue Devilsavg 65¢	$853.46	$486.32	-$367.14	56% 488-383 (871)
0xheavy888CTR	Duke Blue Devilsavg 71¢	$236.43	$193.14	-$43.29	55% 119-96 (215)
OJ ojgARB<$100	Duke Blue Devilsavg 52.2¢	$220	$186	-$34	41% 106-154 (260)
└ Duke Blue Devils leg	Duke Blue Devilsavg 52.2¢	$166.95	$105.6	-$61.35
└ Michigan State Spartans leg	Michigan State Spartansavg 44.2¢	$53.05	$80.4	+$27.35
LI LightParadox	Michigan State Spartansavg 40.8¢	$90.26	$151.64	+$61.38	28% 274-715 (989)
LI LimousinCTR	Duke Blue Devilsavg 31¢	$121.61	$123.57	+$1.96	28% 284-730 (1014)
VeryLucky888CTR	Duke Blue Devilsavg 72.6¢	$282.85	$116.01	-$26.38	51% 299-291 (590)
VE Venusian	Michigan State Spartansavg 41¢	$68.29	$114.66	+$46.37	28% 278-729 (1007)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Duke Blue Devilsavg 74¢	$76.96	$60.32	-$16.64	48% 190-206 (396)
PA Pan9X	Michigan State Spartansavg 47.5¢	$119.32	$59.14	-$0.67	49% 443-470 (913)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Duke Blue Devilsavg 31¢	$24.8	$27.2	+$2.4	28% 278-703 (981)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Duke Blue Devilsavg 32¢	$12.8	$13	+$0.2	18% 132-591 (723)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Duke Blue Devilsavg 71¢	$3.55	$2.9	-$0.65	26% 180-518 (698)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$4,726.46

Value

$3.7K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Flaznorp

Michigan State Spartans

Invested

$1,909.27

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$205.8

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

takeormakeCTR

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$2,503.99

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$479.55

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

RN1ARB<$100

Michigan State Spartans

Invested

$1,479.72

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$1.15

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

Both legs:

Michigan State Spartans$932.4953¢+$185.25

Duke Blue Devils$547.2255¢-$184.1

38791873984189ARB<$100

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$1,102.98

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$3.43

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

Both legs:

Michigan State Spartans$382.5537.9¢+$189.98

Duke Blue Devils$622.2561.6¢-$193.41

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Michigan State Spartans

Invested

$716.67

Value

$837.92

PnL

+$121.26

Record

54%

1656-1433 (3089)

suitcase6628

Michigan State Spartans

Invested

$580

Value

$620

PnL

+$40

Record

65%

175-96 (271)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$853.46

Value

$486.32

PnL

-$367.14

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

0xheavy888CTR

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$236.43

Value

$193.14

PnL

-$43.29

Record

55%

119-96 (215)

ojgARB<$100

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$220

Value

$186

PnL

-$34

Record

41%

106-154 (260)

Both legs:

Duke Blue Devils$166.9552.2¢-$61.35

Michigan State Spartans$53.0544.2¢+$27.35

LightParadox

Michigan State Spartans

Invested

$90.26

Value

$151.64

PnL

+$61.38

Record

28%

274-715 (989)

LimousinCTR

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$121.61

Value

$123.57

PnL

+$1.96

Record

28%

284-730 (1014)

VeryLucky888CTR

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$282.85

Value

$116.01

PnL

-$26.38

Record

51%

299-291 (590)

Venusian

Michigan State Spartans

Invested

$68.29

Value

$114.66

PnL

+$46.37

Record

28%

278-729 (1007)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$76.96

Value

$60.32

PnL

-$16.64

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

Pan9X

Michigan State Spartans

Invested

$119.32

Value

$59.14

PnL

-$0.67

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$24.8

Value

$27.2

PnL

+$2.4

Record

28%

278-703 (981)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$12.8

Value

$13

PnL

+$0.2

Record

18%

132-591 (723)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$3.55

Value

$2.9

PnL

-$0.65

Record

26%

180-518 (698)

Research grade

AvoidDuke Blue Devils at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Duke Blue Devils

10 of 16 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Michigan State Spartans 63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Duke Blue Devils. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMichigan State Spartans 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDuke Blue Devils 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedDuke Blue Devils 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Duke Blue Devils 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Duke Blue Devils wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.