San Diego Toreros vs. Colorado Buffaloes

8 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Colorado Buffaloes (47%) · Colorado Buffaloes at 73¢ · $38K held · ended Nov 11

San Diego Toreros28¢Colorado Buffaloes72¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Colorado Buffaloes

Consensus Traders

Colorado Buffaloes 47%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$37.7K

Combined PnL

-$722.2

Smart Money Entry

75.5¢ → 72.5¢

-4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidColorado Buffaloes at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colorado Buffaloes

8 of 17 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

San Diego Toreros28%

Colorado Buffaloes73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colorado Buffaloes8 traders

Total Value$35.7K

Total Shares49,453

Combined PnL$-1.7K

San Diego Toreros9 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares6,535

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Colorado Buffaloes — 47%San Diego Toreros — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Colorado Buffaloes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColorado Buffaloes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpSan Diego Toreros 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSan Diego Toreros 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedColorado Buffaloes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Colorado Buffaloes 50% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Colorado Buffaloesavg 75¢	$32.3K	$31.2K	$-1.1K	51% 3680-3512 (7192)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Colorado Buffaloesavg 76¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$115.55	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
CI cigarettes	Colorado Buffaloesavg 75¢	$1.1K	$882	-$168	53% 5552-4936 (10488)
HO HomeRunHazard	Colorado Buffaloesavg 88¢	$1.2K	$866.32	-$314.53	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
HI hi774cCTR	San Diego Torerosavg 11¢	$200	$472.73	+$272.73	8% 37-422 (459)
SN SnakeBallCTR	San Diego Torerosavg 11¢	$192.88	$455.89	+$263.01	49% 220-228 (448)
VE VenusianCTR	San Diego Torerosavg 12¢	$168.28	$365.14	+$196.87	28% 304-772 (1076)
RN1ARB<$100	Colorado Buffaloesavg 77¢	$248.95	$239.38	-$9.57	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
└ Colorado Buffaloes leg	Colorado Buffaloesavg 77¢	$184.03	$173.28	-$10.75
└ San Diego Toreros leg	San Diego Torerosavg 27¢	$64.92	$66.11	+$1.19
LI LimousinCTR	San Diego Torerosavg 11¢	$66.96	$158.27	+$91.31	29% 313-784 (1097)
FL FlaznorpCTR	San Diego Torerosavg 10¢	$42.26	$156.34	+$114.09	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
38 38791873984189	Colorado Buffaloesavg 76.3¢	$129.76	$103.01	-$21.08	48% 959-1032 (1991)
LI LightParadoxCTR	San Diego Torerosavg 11¢	$43.04	$101.73	+$58.69	28% 298-765 (1063)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Colorado Buffaloesavg 89¢	$99.99	$70.78	-$29.21	41% 3090-4455 (7545)
PA Pan9X<$100	Colorado Buffaloesavg 76.4¢	$50.3	$43.86	-$4.69	49% 446-472 (918)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	San Diego Torerosavg 27.8¢	$25.26	$33.67	+$8.41	64% 179-99 (278)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	San Diego Torerosavg 30¢	$12	$14.8	+$2.8	25% 120-354 (474)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Colorado Buffaloesavg 89¢	$4.45	$3.15	-$1.3	26% 185-519 (704)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	San Diego Torerosavg 11¢	$0.56	$1.31	+$0.76	29% 307-748 (1055)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Colorado Buffaloes

Invested

$32,295.05

Value

$31.2K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

51%

3680-3512 (7192)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Colorado Buffaloes

Invested

$2,623.53

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$115.55

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

cigarettes

Colorado Buffaloes

Invested

$1,050

Value

$882

PnL

-$168

Record

53%

5552-4936 (10488)

HomeRunHazard

Colorado Buffaloes

Invested

$1,180.85

Value

$866.32

PnL

-$314.53

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

hi774cCTR

San Diego Toreros

Invested

$200

Value

$472.73

PnL

+$272.73

Record

37-422 (459)

SnakeBallCTR

San Diego Toreros

Invested

$192.88

Value

$455.89

PnL

+$263.01

Record

49%

220-228 (448)

VenusianCTR

San Diego Toreros

Invested

$168.28

Value

$365.14

PnL

+$196.87

Record

28%

304-772 (1076)

RN1ARB<$100

Colorado Buffaloes

Invested

$248.95

Value

$239.38

PnL

-$9.57

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

Both legs:

Colorado Buffaloes$184.0377¢-$10.75

San Diego Toreros$64.9227¢+$1.19

LimousinCTR

San Diego Toreros

Invested

$66.96

Value

$158.27

PnL

+$91.31

Record

29%

313-784 (1097)

FlaznorpCTR

San Diego Toreros

Invested

$42.26

Value

$156.34

PnL

+$114.09

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

38791873984189

Colorado Buffaloes

Invested

$129.76

Value

$103.01

PnL

-$21.08

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

LightParadoxCTR

San Diego Toreros

Invested

$43.04

Value

$101.73

PnL

+$58.69

Record

28%

298-765 (1063)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Colorado Buffaloes

Invested

$99.99

Value

$70.78

PnL

-$29.21

Record

41%

3090-4455 (7545)

Pan9X<$100

Colorado Buffaloes

Invested

$50.3

Value

$43.86

PnL

-$4.69

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

San Diego Toreros

Invested

$25.26

Value

$33.67

PnL

+$8.41

Record

64%

179-99 (278)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

San Diego Toreros

Invested

$12

Value

$14.8

PnL

+$2.8

Record

25%

120-354 (474)

ameisgoat11<$100

Colorado Buffaloes

Invested

$4.45

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$1.3

Record

26%

185-519 (704)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

San Diego Toreros

Invested

$0.56

Value

$1.31

PnL

+$0.76

Record

29%

307-748 (1055)

Research grade

AvoidColorado Buffaloes at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Colorado Buffaloes

8 of 17 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Colorado Buffaloes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColorado Buffaloes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpSan Diego Toreros 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSan Diego Toreros 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedColorado Buffaloes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Colorado Buffaloes 50% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colorado Buffaloes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.