Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.
Kent State vs. Bowling Green: O/U 55.5
Resolved Over. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
11
Under 73%
6 arb excluded
$47.7K
$3.0K
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR primm | Overavg 40¢ | $12.5K | $31.0K | +$18.5K | 61% 855-553 (1408) |
PA PacersThreeandahalfCTR | Underavg 67.8¢ | $12.8K | — | $-12.8K | 62% 1003-623 (1626) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 55.5¢ | $5.6K | $4.8K | -$768.88 | 58% 3830-2807 (6637) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 39¢ | $1.9K | $4.8K | +$3.0K | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 55.5¢ | $3.7K | — | $-3.7K | |
VI vibing123 | Overavg 42.6¢ | $2.9K | $6.8K | +$3.9K | 63% 1078-644 (1722) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Underavg 54.5¢ | $3.1K | $2.0K | -$605.76 | 48% 969-1052 (2021) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 54.5¢ | $1.9K | — | $-1.9K | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 32.2¢ | $630.16 | $2.0K | +$1.3K | |
 CUTJALENHURTSCTR | Underavg 56.1¢ | $3.8K | — | $-3.8K | 52% 2582-2418 (5000) |
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100 | Underavg 56.2¢ | $1.8K | $1.3K | -$569.54 | 51% 3173-3073 (6246) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 56.2¢ | $1.3K | — | $-1.3K | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 39.1¢ | $499.16 | $1.3K | +$777.15 | |
 betdgeCTR | Underavg 44¢ | $1.6K | — | $-1.6K | 45% 19-23 (42) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100 | Underavg 53.6¢ | $823.16 | $500 | -$323.16 | 56% 504-395 (899) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 53.6¢ | $773.16 | — | -$773.16 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 10¢ | $50 | $500 | +$450 | |
JU justaluckydude | Overavg 43.6¢ | $484.92 | $1.1K | +$627.72 | 30% 134-317 (451) |
CM cm2897CTR | Underavg 52.4¢ | $772.33 | — | -$772.33 | 49% 1097-1127 (2224) |
BI biying88888CTR | Underavg 57.7¢ | $901.67 | — | -$901.67 | 27% 63-170 (233) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Underavg 41.4¢ | $283.36 | $125.83 | -$157.53 | 54% 1662-1438 (3100) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 41.4¢ | $239.32 | — | -$239.32 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 35¢ | $44.04 | $125.83 | +$81.79 | |
PA Pan9XARB<$100 | Underavg 62.6¢ | $415.91 | $94.57 | -$165.81 | 49% 450-474 (924) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 62.6¢ | $239.81 | — | -$241.57 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 25.3¢ | $23.9 | $94.57 | +$75.76 | |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Underavg 44.5¢ | $90.37 | — | -$90.37 | 62% 2365-1458 (3823) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Underavg 64.3¢ | $23.68 | — | -$23.68 | 50% 191-194 (385) |
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100 | Underavg 64¢ | $1 | — | -$1 | 6% 28-415 (443) |
Invested
$12,489.19
Value
$31.0K
PnL
+$18.5K
Record
61%
855-553 (1408)
Invested
$12,758.98
Value
—
PnL
$-12.8K
Record
62%
1003-623 (1626)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$5,617.9
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$768.88
Record
58%
3830-2807 (6637)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,890.3
Value
$6.8K
PnL
+$3.9K
Record
63%
1078-644 (1722)
Invested
$3,137.52
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$605.76
Record
48%
969-1052 (2021)
Both legs:
CUTJALENHURTSCTRInvested
$3,833.01
Value
—
PnL
$-3.8K
Record
52%
2582-2418 (5000)
Invested
$1,845.84
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$569.54
Record
51%
3173-3073 (6246)
Both legs:
betdgeCTRInvested
$1,610
Value
—
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
45%
19-23 (42)
Invested
$823.16
Value
$500
PnL
-$323.16
Record
56%
504-395 (899)
Both legs:
Invested
$484.92
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$627.72
Record
30%
134-317 (451)
Invested
$772.33
Value
—
PnL
-$772.33
Record
49%
1097-1127 (2224)
Invested
$901.67
Value
—
PnL
-$901.67
Record
27%
63-170 (233)
Invested
$283.36
Value
$125.83
PnL
-$157.53
Record
54%
1662-1438 (3100)
Both legs:
Invested
$415.91
Value
$94.57
PnL
-$165.81
Record
49%
450-474 (924)
Both legs:
Invested
$90.37
Value
—
PnL
-$90.37
Record
62%
2365-1458 (3823)
Invested
$23.68
Value
—
PnL
-$23.68
Record
50%
191-194 (385)
Invested
$1
Value
—
PnL
-$1
Record
6%
28-415 (443)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
primm
Over — $31.0K
PacersThreeandahalf
CTRUnder — $0
RN1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
vibing123
Over — $6.8K
38791873984189
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CUTJALENHURTS
CTRUnder — $0
6512395314597884
ARBArbitrage — excluded
betdge
CTRUnder — $0
0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872
ARBArbitrage — excluded
justaluckydude
Over — $1.1K