Michigan State vs. Michigan

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Michigan State (63%) · Michigan State at 99¢ · $146K held · ended Nov 8

Michigan State99¢Michigan1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Michigan State

Consensus Traders

Michigan State 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$145.6K

Combined PnL

$-8.4K

Smart Money Entry

73.2¢ → 98.5¢

+35% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralMichigan State at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Michigan State

10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Michigan State99%

Michigan2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Michigan State10 traders

Total Value$124.0K

Total Shares140,435

Combined PnL+$5.2K

Michigan6 traders

Total Value$21.0K

Total Shares67,396

Combined PnL$-13.5K

Michigan State — 63%Michigan — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Michigan Stateavg 88¢	$76.3K	$81.8K	+$5.6K	53% 6334-5615 (11949)
RN1	Michigan Stateavg 61.6¢	$22.8K	$21.2K	$-1.7K	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Michiganavg 59.7¢	$22.8K	$10.9K	$-11.9K	47% 535-611 (1146)
65 6512395314597884	Michigan Stateavg 66.9¢	$9.6K	$8.2K	$-1.4K	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
38 38791873984189CTR	Michiganavg 71.9¢	$9.2K	$5.5K	+$11.94	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Michigan Stateavg 41.8¢	$3.4K	$5.3K	+$2.0K	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Michiganavg 84.3¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	-$13.77	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Michigan Stateavg 42.2¢	$2.7K	$3.3K	+$560.96	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
FL FlamePyro	Michigan Stateavg 19.4¢	$2.1K	$1.7K	-$366.9	56% 490-389 (879)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Michigan Stateavg 41.4¢	$844.15	$1.2K	+$358.2	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
TA takeormake	Michigan Stateavg 72.9¢	$583.83	$719.74	+$135.91	52% 5134-4713 (9847)
0X 0xfFFF6537ARB<$100	Michiganavg 26¢	$484.38	$598.97	+$114.59	49% 1142-1178 (2320)
└ Michigan State leg	Michigan Stateavg 45.3¢	$224.38	$393.97	+$169.59
└ Michigan leg	Michiganavg 26¢	$260	$205	-$55
PA Pan9X	Michigan Stateavg 59¢	$856.36	$503.54	+$28.69	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
ET ethanazCTR	Michiganavg 23¢	$2.0K	$396.38	$-1.6K	49% 730-758 (1488)
13 13897651<$100	Michigan Stateavg 76.5¢	$11.48	$10.25	-$1.23	56% 8963-7033 (15996)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Michiganavg 82¢	$4.87	$4.99	+$0.12	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
CM cm2897CTR<$100	Michiganavg 27¢	$14.91	$3.04	-$11.87	51% 2230-2185 (4415)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Michigan State

Invested

$76,295.53

Value

$81.8K

PnL

+$5.6K

Record

53%

6334-5615 (11949)

RN1

Michigan State

Invested

$22,847.94

Value

$21.2K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Michigan

Invested

$22,775.59

Value

$10.9K

PnL

$-11.9K

Record

47%

535-611 (1146)

6512395314597884

Michigan State

Invested

$9,639.98

Value

$8.2K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

38791873984189CTR

Michigan

Invested

$9,232.63

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$11.94

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

ferrariChampions2026

Michigan State

Invested

$3,358.51

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Michigan

Invested

$4,181.29

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$13.77

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Michigan State

Invested

$2,690.72

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$560.96

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

FlamePyro

Michigan State

Invested

$2,077.43

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$366.9

Record

56%

490-389 (879)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Michigan State

Invested

$844.15

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$358.2

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

takeormake

Michigan State

Invested

$583.83

Value

$719.74

PnL

+$135.91

Record

52%

5134-4713 (9847)

0xfFFF6537ARB<$100

Michigan

Invested

$484.38

Value

$598.97

PnL

+$114.59

Record

49%

1142-1178 (2320)

Both legs:

Michigan State$224.3845.3¢+$169.59

Michigan$26026¢-$55

Pan9X

Michigan State

Invested

$856.36

Value

$503.54

PnL

+$28.69

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

ethanazCTR

Michigan

Invested

$2,025.96

Value

$396.38

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

49%

730-758 (1488)

13897651<$100

Michigan State

Invested

$11.48

Value

$10.25

PnL

-$1.23

Record

56%

8963-7033 (15996)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Michigan

Invested

$4.87

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.12

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

cm2897CTR<$100

Michigan

Invested

$14.91

Value

$3.04

PnL

-$11.87

Record

51%

2230-2185 (4415)

Research grade

NeutralMichigan State at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Michigan State

10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Michigan State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.