Spread: Central Michigan (-16.5)

7 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Central Michigan (41%) · Central Michigan at 53¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 12

Central Michigan53¢Sacramento State47¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Central Michigan

Consensus Traders

Central Michigan 41%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.6K

Combined PnL

-$6.48

Smart Money Entry

53.5¢ → 52.5¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralCentral Michigan at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Central Michigan

7 of 17 top traders (41%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Central Michigan53%

Sacramento State48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Central Michigan7 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares16,164

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Sacramento State10 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares14,360

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Central Michigan — 41%Sacramento State — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Central Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperCentral Michigan 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSacramento State 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedSacramento State 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Sacramento State 67% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lightotunnel35	Central Michiganavg 53¢	$4.9K	$5.7K	+$832.44	7% 4-53 (57)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Central Michiganavg 53¢	$2.6K	$3.0K	+$323.13	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Sacramento Stateavg 47¢	$3.4K	$2.7K	-$725.66	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 47¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$54.18	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
└ Sacramento State leg	Sacramento Stateavg 47¢	$822.42	$761.18	-$74.86
└ Central Michigan leg	Central Michiganavg 54.3¢	$513.24	$533.93	+$20.68
VeryLucky888CTR	Sacramento Stateavg 46.9¢	$1.5K	$1.0K	-$311.81	52% 497-452 (949)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Sacramento Stateavg 44¢	$494.12	$533.43	+$39.3	9% 40-430 (470)
RN1	Central Michiganavg 56¢	$454.46	$456.42	+$1.96	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
PR primm	Central Michiganavg 62¢	$310	$337.5	+$27.5	61% 870-566 (1436)
65 6512395314597884	Central Michiganavg 56¢	$338.2	$317.38	-$20.83	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Sacramento Stateavg 46¢	$368	$288	-$80	15% 150-841 (991)
BI biying88888CTR	Sacramento Stateavg 44¢	$172.48	$186.2	+$13.72	37% 121-203 (324)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Sacramento Stateavg 38¢	$190	$180	-$10	55% 719-584 (1303)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Sacramento Stateavg 45¢	$186.09	$153.01	-$33.08	31% 412-918 (1330)
CM cm2897CTR	Sacramento Stateavg 41.4¢	$111.8	$128.25	+$16.45	49% 1112-1143 (2255)
NM NM-PCTR	Sacramento Stateavg 47¢	$164.5	$126	-$38.5	59% 3478-2370 (5848)
GC GC-PCTR	Sacramento Stateavg 47¢	$164.5	$126	-$38.5	20% 99-384 (483)
PA Pan9X<$100	Central Michiganavg 56¢	$68.8	$41.42	-$2.74	49% 692-733 (1425)
GH ghorrock<$100	Central Michiganavg 52¢	$13.31	$13.44	+$0.13	55% 680-552 (1232)

lightotunnel35

Central Michigan

Invested

$4,896.97

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$832.44

Record

4-53 (57)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Central Michigan

Invested

$2,634.73

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$323.13

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$3,410.6

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$725.66

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$1,549.04

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$54.18

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

Both legs:

Sacramento State$822.4247¢-$74.86

Central Michigan$513.2454.3¢+$20.68

VeryLucky888CTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$1,511.39

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$311.81

Record

52%

497-452 (949)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$494.12

Value

$533.43

PnL

+$39.3

Record

40-430 (470)

RN1

Central Michigan

Invested

$454.46

Value

$456.42

PnL

+$1.96

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

primm

Central Michigan

Invested

$310

Value

$337.5

PnL

+$27.5

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

6512395314597884

Central Michigan

Invested

$338.2

Value

$317.38

PnL

-$20.83

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$368

Value

$288

PnL

-$80

Record

15%

150-841 (991)

biying88888CTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$172.48

Value

$186.2

PnL

+$13.72

Record

37%

121-203 (324)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$190

Value

$180

PnL

-$10

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

LightParadoxCTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$186.09

Value

$153.01

PnL

-$33.08

Record

31%

412-918 (1330)

cm2897CTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$111.8

Value

$128.25

PnL

+$16.45

Record

49%

1112-1143 (2255)

NM-PCTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$164.5

Value

$126

PnL

-$38.5

Record

59%

3478-2370 (5848)

GC-PCTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$164.5

Value

$126

PnL

-$38.5

Record

20%

99-384 (483)

Pan9X<$100

Central Michigan

Invested

$68.8

Value

$41.42

PnL

-$2.74

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

ghorrock<$100

Central Michigan

Invested

$13.31

Value

$13.44

PnL

+$0.13

Record

55%

680-552 (1232)

Research grade

NeutralCentral Michigan at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Central Michigan

7 of 17 top traders (41%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Central Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperCentral Michigan 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSacramento State 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedSacramento State 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Sacramento State 67% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Central Michigan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.