Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs Ryvex (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series Play-In

14 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Honvéd (88%) · Honvéd at 88¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 10

Honvéd88¢Ryvex12¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Honvéd

Consensus Traders

Honvéd 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

-$559.41

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 87.5¢

+73% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralHonvéd at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Honvéd

14 of 16 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Honvéd88%

Ryvex13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ryvex2 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,118

Combined PnL-$424.43

Honvéd14 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares9,576

Combined PnL-$134.98

Ryvex — 13%Honvéd — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Honvéd. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Honvéd 88% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JabJabichCTR	Ryvexavg 62.8¢	$2.6K	$2.2K	-$424.02	—
alpheclabs2	Honvédavg 37.7¢	$1.5K	$1.9K	+$408.64	—
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	Honvédavg 73.1¢	$1.8K	$1.2K	-$629.41	—
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	Ryvexavg 35.4¢	$624.67	$682.19	-$86.77	—
└ Honvéd leg	Honvédavg 46.5¢	$258.25	$407.92	+$5.38
└ Ryvex leg	Ryvexavg 35.4¢	$366.42	$274.27	-$92.15
GA Gaditima	Honvédavg 52.8¢	$597.29	$542.74	-$54.55	—
38 38791873984189	Honvédavg 44.2¢	$1.3K	$282.04	+$19.23	—
AM ameisgoat11	Honvédavg 67.9¢	$229.83	$221.1	+$38.42	—
CI cigarettes	Honvédavg 41.7¢	$160.04	$220.93	+$60.89	—
OM omnibus-076daa	Honvédavg 43.4¢	$232.45	$110.41	+$9.62	—
LR lryyy<$100	Honvédavg 41¢	$67.92	$80	+$12.08	—
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Honvédavg 71¢	$95.94	$64.19	-$31.76	—
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Honvédavg 30.6¢	$126.37	$60.02	+$21.28	—
SH shiifoo<$100	Honvédavg 52.9¢	$38.77	$38.42	+$7.35	—
US User7429<$100	Honvédavg 44¢	$69	$32.78	+$2.42	—
PA Pan9X	Honvédavg 68¢	$132.82	$8.14	+$0.68	—
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Ryvexavg 62.9¢	$5.28	$4.87	-$0.41	—
FL Flaznorp<$100	Honvédavg 44¢	$1.92	$2.05	+$0.13	—

JabJabichCTR

Ryvex

Invested

$2,581

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$424.02

Record

—

alpheclabs2

Honvéd

Invested

$1,504.73

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$408.64

Record

—

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

Honvéd

Invested

$1,798.91

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$629.41

Record

—

319113331313111ARB<$100

Ryvex

Invested

$624.67

Value

$682.19

PnL

-$86.77

Record

—

Both legs:

Honvéd$258.2546.5¢+$5.38

Ryvex$366.4235.4¢-$92.15

Gaditima

Honvéd

Invested

$597.29

Value

$542.74

PnL

-$54.55

Record

—

38791873984189

Honvéd

Invested

$1,323.25

Value

$282.04

PnL

+$19.23

Record

—

ameisgoat11

Honvéd

Invested

$229.83

Value

$221.1

PnL

+$38.42

Record

—

cigarettes

Honvéd

Invested

$160.04

Value

$220.93

PnL

+$60.89

Record

—

omnibus-076daa

Honvéd

Invested

$232.45

Value

$110.41

PnL

+$9.62

Record

—

lryyy<$100

Honvéd

Invested

$67.92

Value

$80

PnL

+$12.08

Record

—

glennyorkshire<$100

Honvéd

Invested

$95.94

Value

$64.19

PnL

-$31.76

Record

—

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Honvéd

Invested

$126.37

Value

$60.02

PnL

+$21.28

Record

—

shiifoo<$100

Honvéd

Invested

$38.77

Value

$38.42

PnL

+$7.35

Record

—

User7429<$100

Honvéd

Invested

$69

Value

$32.78

PnL

+$2.42

Record

—

Pan9X

Honvéd

Invested

$132.82

Value

$8.14

PnL

+$0.68

Record

—

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Ryvex

Invested

$5.28

Value

$4.87

PnL

-$0.41

Record

—

Flaznorp<$100

Honvéd

Invested

$1.92

Value

$2.05

PnL

+$0.13

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralHonvéd at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Honvéd

14 of 16 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Honvéd. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Honvéd 88% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Honvéd wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.