Counter-Strike: MEIA NOITE vs BORRACHEIROS (BO3) - CCT South America Group Stage

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold MEIA NOITE (38%) · MEIA NOITE at 55¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 10

MEIA NOITE55¢BORRACHEIROS45¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MEIA NOITE

Consensus Traders

MEIA NOITE 38%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$-2.8K

Smart Money Entry

55.4¢ → 54.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralMEIA NOITE at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MEIA NOITE

5 of 13 top traders (38%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

MEIA NOITE55%

BORRACHEIROS46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MEIA NOITE5 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares10,870

Combined PnL$-3.1K

BORRACHEIROS8 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,371

Combined PnL+$213.86

MEIA NOITE — 38%BORRACHEIROS — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on MEIA NOITE. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBORRACHEIROS 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBORRACHEIROS 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedBORRACHEIROS 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000BORRACHEIROS 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
alpheclabs2	MEIA NOITEavg 55¢	$4.9K	$2.4K	$-2.5K	47% 74-83 (157)
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	MEIA NOITEavg 54.1¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$54.28	42% 37-51 (88)
└ MEIA NOITE leg	MEIA NOITEavg 54.1¢	$998.1	$1.2K	+$164.16
└ BORRACHEIROS leg	BORRACHEIROSavg 44.4¢	$660.61	$550.73	-$109.88
BI BillBenter2026CTR	BORRACHEIROSavg 50.2¢	$887.9	$788.41	-$99.49	14% 73-461 (534)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	MEIA NOITEavg 57.7¢	$1.1K	$528.36	-$588.85	53% 122-107 (229)
VeryLucky888CTR	BORRACHEIROSavg 37.3¢	$681.92	$345.99	+$193.96	49% 231-239 (470)
PU purplegattoCTR	BORRACHEIROSavg 42¢	$200.34	$319.59	+$119.25	69% 2572-1165 (3737)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	BORRACHEIROSavg 44¢	$225	$207.1	-$17.9	23% 94-307 (401)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	BORRACHEIROSavg 64.5¢	$259.45	$166.6	+$55.44	24% 157-504 (661)
└ MEIA NOITE leg	MEIA NOITEavg 35.9¢	$57.78	$95.69	+$97.48
└ BORRACHEIROS leg	BORRACHEIROSavg 64.5¢	$112.95	$70.91	-$42.04
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	BORRACHEIROSavg 47.5¢	$126.81	$120.74	-$6.07	54% 1625-1379 (3004)
└ BORRACHEIROS leg	BORRACHEIROSavg 47.5¢	$84.55	$65.87	-$18.69
└ MEIA NOITE leg	MEIA NOITEavg 48.5¢	$42.26	$54.88	+$12.62
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	BORRACHEIROSavg 41¢	$56.22	$53.14	+$11.26	48% 421-450 (871)
CI cigarettes<$100	MEIA NOITEavg 42¢	$24.26	$19.43	-$4.83	53% 5376-4855 (10231)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	BORRACHEIROSavg 41.7¢	$6.25	$10.91	+$4.66	60% 629-411 (1040)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	BORRACHEIROSavg 56.6¢	$8.33	$10.7	+$2.36	50% 151-150 (301)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	BORRACHEIROSavg 41¢	$10	$9.76	-$0.24	22% 118-423 (541)
BI biying88888<$100	MEIA NOITEavg 51¢	$15.81	$8.46	-$7.35	27% 62-169 (231)
FL Flaznorp<$100	MEIA NOITEavg 34¢	$1.33	$1.07	-$0.26	50% 1408-1410 (2818)

alpheclabs2

MEIA NOITE

Invested

$4,870.15

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

47%

74-83 (157)

319113331313111ARB<$100

MEIA NOITE

Invested

$1,658.71

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$54.28

Record

42%

37-51 (88)

Both legs:

MEIA NOITE$998.154.1¢+$164.16

BORRACHEIROS$660.6144.4¢-$109.88

BillBenter2026CTR

BORRACHEIROS

Invested

$887.9

Value

$788.41

PnL

-$99.49

Record

14%

73-461 (534)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

MEIA NOITE

Invested

$1,117.21

Value

$528.36

PnL

-$588.85

Record

53%

122-107 (229)

VeryLucky888CTR

BORRACHEIROS

Invested

$681.92

Value

$345.99

PnL

+$193.96

Record

49%

231-239 (470)

purplegattoCTR

BORRACHEIROS

Invested

$200.34

Value

$319.59

PnL

+$119.25

Record

69%

2572-1165 (3737)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

BORRACHEIROS

Invested

$225

Value

$207.1

PnL

-$17.9

Record

23%

94-307 (401)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

BORRACHEIROS

Invested

$259.45

Value

$166.6

PnL

+$55.44

Record

24%

157-504 (661)

Both legs:

MEIA NOITE$57.7835.9¢+$97.48

BORRACHEIROS$112.9564.5¢-$42.04

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

BORRACHEIROS

Invested

$126.81

Value

$120.74

PnL

-$6.07

Record

54%

1625-1379 (3004)

Both legs:

BORRACHEIROS$84.5547.5¢-$18.69

MEIA NOITE$42.2648.5¢+$12.62

Pan9XCTR<$100

BORRACHEIROS

Invested

$56.22

Value

$53.14

PnL

+$11.26

Record

48%

421-450 (871)

cigarettes<$100

MEIA NOITE

Invested

$24.26

Value

$19.43

PnL

-$4.83

Record

53%

5376-4855 (10231)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

BORRACHEIROS

Invested

$6.25

Value

$10.91

PnL

+$4.66

Record

60%

629-411 (1040)

lryyyCTR<$100

BORRACHEIROS

Invested

$8.33

Value

$10.7

PnL

+$2.36

Record

50%

151-150 (301)

pauleta23CTR<$100

BORRACHEIROS

Invested

$10

Value

$9.76

PnL

-$0.24

Record

22%

118-423 (541)

biying88888<$100

MEIA NOITE

Invested

$15.81

Value

$8.46

PnL

-$7.35

Record

27%

62-169 (231)

Flaznorp<$100

MEIA NOITE

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.07

PnL

-$0.26

Record

50%

1408-1410 (2818)

Research grade

NeutralMEIA NOITE at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

MEIA NOITE

5 of 13 top traders (38%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on MEIA NOITE. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBORRACHEIROS 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBORRACHEIROS 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedBORRACHEIROS 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000BORRACHEIROS 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MEIA NOITE wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.