Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-11-08?

6 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (35%) · Yes at 98¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 35%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

-$241.19

Smart Money Entry

91.1¢ → 97.8¢

+7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 17 top traders (35%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,035

Combined PnL+$246.17

No11 traders

Total Value$142.57

Total Shares5,343

Combined PnL-$487.35

Yes — 35%No — 65%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 86.5¢	$2.6K	$2.9K	+$239.73	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 98.3¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$6.15	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
PA Paul973973	Yesavg 98¢	$500	$500	-$0	89% 1073-138 (1211)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Yesavg 92.5¢	$170.37	$180.66	+$10.29	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
WA WagerWizard	Yesavg 95.7¢	$98.06	$100.33	+$2.27	84% 15082-2932 (18014)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 13.7¢	$213.28	$31.19	-$182.09	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 12.6¢	$138.68	$21.54	-$117.14	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 15.8¢	$16.66	$16.07	-$0.59	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 12.2¢	$96.68	$15.84	-$80.84	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 3.1¢	$24.07	$14.99	-$9.08	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 14.1¢	$93.83	$13.31	-$80.52	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Noavg 16.7¢	$11.5	$11.04	-$0.35	48% 7452-7984 (15436)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$10.5	$10.15	-$0.35	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 86¢	$4.3	$4.33	+$0.03	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 9.9¢	$20.06	$4.06	-$16.01	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 15.2¢	$4.55	$4.05	-$0.5	52% 9022-8174 (17196)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$1.73	$0.34	+$0.11	58% 47904-34520 (82424)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$2,642.42

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$239.73

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$1,314

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$6.15

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

Paul973973

Yes

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

-$0

Record

89%

1073-138 (1211)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Yes

Invested

$170.37

Value

$180.66

PnL

+$10.29

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

WagerWizard

Yes

Invested

$98.06

Value

$100.33

PnL

+$2.27

Record

84%

15082-2932 (18014)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$213.28

Value

$31.19

PnL

-$182.09

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$138.68

Value

$21.54

PnL

-$117.14

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$16.66

Value

$16.07

PnL

-$0.59

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$96.68

Value

$15.84

PnL

-$80.84

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$24.07

Value

$14.99

PnL

-$9.08

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$93.83

Value

$13.31

PnL

-$80.52

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

OddstormCTR<$100

Invested

$11.5

Value

$11.04

PnL

-$0.35

Record

48%

7452-7984 (15436)

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$10.5

Value

$10.15

PnL

-$0.35

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.3

Value

$4.33

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$20.06

Value

$4.06

PnL

-$16.01

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$4.55

Value

$4.05

PnL

-$0.5

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$1.73

Value

$0.34

PnL

+$0.11

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 17 top traders (35%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.