Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (59%). 5 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 5.5

5 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 42¢ · $74K held · ended Nov 8

Over59¢Under41¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$73.7K

Combined PnL

$14.0K

Smart Money Entry

88.1¢ → 41.5¢

-53% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 15 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$36.5K

Total Shares49,372

Combined PnL$-7.0K

Over10 traders

Total Value$35.5K

Total Shares62,468

Combined PnL+$21.0K

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 4

Diverging

ctrOver 70% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Over 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8CTR	Underavg 89.7¢	$42.8K	$35.8K	$-7.0K	65% 274-148 (422)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 16.1¢	$6.0K	$20.9K	+$14.8K	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 13.8¢	$2.7K	$6.9K	+$4.2K	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
RN1	Overavg 50.2¢	$4.8K	$5.5K	+$656.89	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 80.7¢	$2.2K	$1.7K	+$307.79	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
└ Over leg	Overavg 24.4¢	$467.98	$1.1K	+$860.17
└ Under leg	Underavg 80.7¢	$1.1K	$562.33	-$552.38
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 10¢	$4.0K	$981.52	+$580.9	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
HI hi774c	Overavg 10¢	$3.4K	$836.2	+$494.9	46% 5609-6517 (12126)
AN Anon455	Overavg 27.1¢	$170.89	$363.24	+$192.35	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 43.6¢	$360.53	$343.67	-$16.86	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 41.1¢	$321.87	$329.2	+$7.33	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Overavg 52.2¢	$95.6	$90.92	-$1.62	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.2¢	$52.44	$57.81	+$5.37
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$40.56	$33.12	-$6.99
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 10.3¢	$8.42	$39.07	+$39.5	57% 24613-18229 (42842)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$30.71	$31.46	+$0.75	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
tradecraft<$100	Overavg 10.1¢	$89.01	$21.81	+$12.85	51% 6679-6369 (13048)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Overavg 53¢	$18.55	$20.13	+$1.57	56% 39445-31086 (70531)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$11	$11.27	+$0.27	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Overavg 10¢	$10	$2.45	+$1.45	52% 1527-1394 (2921)

0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8CTR

Under

Invested

$42,791.17

Value

$35.8K

PnL

$-7.0K

Record

65%

274-148 (422)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$6,028.98

Value

$20.9K

PnL

+$14.8K

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$2,661.69

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$4.2K

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

RN1

Over

Invested

$4,820.49

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$656.89

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,194.42

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$307.79

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Both legs:

Over$467.9824.4¢+$860.17

Under$1,093.4280.7¢-$552.38

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$4,006.19

Value

$981.52

PnL

+$580.9

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$3,413.08

Value

$836.2

PnL

+$494.9

Record

46%

5609-6517 (12126)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$170.89

Value

$363.24

PnL

+$192.35

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$360.53

Value

$343.67

PnL

-$16.86

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$321.87

Value

$329.2

PnL

+$7.33

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

Pan9XARB<$100

Over

Invested

$95.6

Value

$90.92

PnL

-$1.62

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

Both legs:

Over$52.4452.2¢+$5.37

Under$40.5652¢-$6.99

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$8.42

Value

$39.07

PnL

+$39.5

Record

57%

24613-18229 (42842)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$30.71

Value

$31.46

PnL

+$0.75

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

tradecraft<$100

Over

Invested

$89.01

Value

$21.81

PnL

+$12.85

Record

51%

6679-6369 (13048)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Over

Invested

$18.55

Value

$20.13

PnL

+$1.57

Record

56%

39445-31086 (70531)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11

Value

$11.27

PnL

+$0.27

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

lonmi2511<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$1.45

Record

52%

1527-1394 (2921)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 42%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 15 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 4

Diverging

ctrOver 70% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Over 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.