Spread: Mohun Bagan Super Giant (-1.5)

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Odisha FC (54%) · Odisha FC at 77¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 5

Mohun Bagan Super Giant24¢Odisha FC76¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Odisha FC

Consensus Traders

Odisha FC 54%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

$840.93

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 76.5¢

+42% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOdisha FC at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Odisha FC

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mohun Bagan Super Giant24%

Odisha FC77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Odisha FC7 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares6,710

Combined PnL+$963.15

Mohun Bagan Super Giant6 traders

Total Value$748.83

Total Shares1,690

Combined PnL-$122.21

Odisha FC — 54%Mohun Bagan Super Giant — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Odisha FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Odisha FC) and the top 1000 (7 on Mohun Bagan Super Giant) disagree here.

whaleOdisha FC 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOdisha FC 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOdisha FC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mohun Bagan Super Giant 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Odisha FCavg 57.3¢	$6.5K	$6.4K	-$37.47	50% 28405-28303 (56708)
└ Odisha FC leg	Odisha FCavg 57.3¢	$3.8K	$5.0K	+$1.2K
└ Mohun Bagan Super Giant leg	Mohun Bagan Super Giantavg 45.7¢	$2.7K	$1.5K	$-1.2K
FL Flaznorp	Odisha FCavg 54.1¢	$3.7K	$4.6K	+$904.86	51% 25699-24415 (50114)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Mohun Bagan Super Giantavg 49¢	$372.27	$384.03	+$11.76	50% 2728-2711 (5439)
TH TheComboConnoisseur	Odisha FCavg 50.2¢	$251.15	$317.5	+$66.35	53% 1110-971 (2081)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Mohun Bagan Super Giantavg 43.8¢	$318.74	$273.29	-$45.45	52% 1362-1281 (2643)
└ Odisha FC leg	Odisha FCavg 51.2¢	$102.5	$150	+$47.5
└ Mohun Bagan Super Giant leg	Mohun Bagan Super Giantavg 43.8¢	$216.24	$123.29	-$92.95
CI cigarettes	Odisha FCavg 59¢	$179.12	$229.05	+$49.93	53% 23476-20702 (44178)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Mohun Bagan Super Giantavg 34¢	$178.47	$191.33	+$12.86	59% 32936-23120 (56056)
SE sentrio	Odisha FCavg 55.5¢	$154.69	$139.94	-$14.75	50% 25801-25492 (51293)
VeryLucky888	Odisha FCavg 51.3¢	$282.67	$89.39	-$39.47	58% 46658-33622 (80280)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Mohun Bagan Super Giantavg 45.2¢	$62.87	$68.11	+$5.24	53% 1408-1254 (2662)
US User7429CTR	Mohun Bagan Super Giantavg 49.2¢	$506.29	$62.26	-$146.71	56% 9103-7252 (16355)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Odisha FCavg 54.4¢	$35.56	$35.76	+$0.19	47% 11682-13378 (25060)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Mohun Bagan Super Giantavg 44.6¢	$39.48	$32.75	-$6.74	50% 1309-1291 (2600)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Odisha FCavg 69¢	$32.22	$28.25	-$3.97	51% 37655-36884 (74539)
DI dips.CTR<$100	Mohun Bagan Super Giantavg 32.1¢	$8.98	$10.36	+$1.38	47% 10622-12133 (22755)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Odisha FC

Invested

$6,454.15

Value

$6.4K

PnL

-$37.47

Record

50%

28405-28303 (56708)

Both legs:

Odisha FC$3,790.7657.3¢+$1.2K

Mohun Bagan Super Giant$2,663.3945.7¢$-1.2K

Flaznorp

Odisha FC

Invested

$3,726.13

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$904.86

Record

51%

25699-24415 (50114)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Mohun Bagan Super Giant

Invested

$372.27

Value

$384.03

PnL

+$11.76

Record

50%

2728-2711 (5439)

TheComboConnoisseur

Odisha FC

Invested

$251.15

Value

$317.5

PnL

+$66.35

Record

53%

1110-971 (2081)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Mohun Bagan Super Giant

Invested

$318.74

Value

$273.29

PnL

-$45.45

Record

52%

1362-1281 (2643)

Both legs:

Odisha FC$102.551.2¢+$47.5

Mohun Bagan Super Giant$216.2443.8¢-$92.95

cigarettes

Odisha FC

Invested

$179.12

Value

$229.05

PnL

+$49.93

Record

53%

23476-20702 (44178)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Mohun Bagan Super Giant

Invested

$178.47

Value

$191.33

PnL

+$12.86

Record

59%

32936-23120 (56056)

sentrio

Odisha FC

Invested

$154.69

Value

$139.94

PnL

-$14.75

Record

50%

25801-25492 (51293)

VeryLucky888

Odisha FC

Invested

$282.67

Value

$89.39

PnL

-$39.47

Record

58%

46658-33622 (80280)

LimousinCTR<$100

Mohun Bagan Super Giant

Invested

$62.87

Value

$68.11

PnL

+$5.24

Record

53%

1408-1254 (2662)

User7429CTR

Mohun Bagan Super Giant

Invested

$506.29

Value

$62.26

PnL

-$146.71

Record

56%

9103-7252 (16355)

topdogbigboi<$100

Odisha FC

Invested

$35.56

Value

$35.76

PnL

+$0.19

Record

47%

11682-13378 (25060)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Mohun Bagan Super Giant

Invested

$39.48

Value

$32.75

PnL

-$6.74

Record

50%

1309-1291 (2600)

SnakeBall<$100

Odisha FC

Invested

$32.22

Value

$28.25

PnL

-$3.97

Record

51%

37655-36884 (74539)

dips.CTR<$100

Mohun Bagan Super Giant

Invested

$8.98

Value

$10.36

PnL

+$1.38

Record

47%

10622-12133 (22755)

Research grade

NeutralOdisha FC at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Odisha FC

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Odisha FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Odisha FC) and the top 1000 (7 on Mohun Bagan Super Giant) disagree here.

whaleOdisha FC 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOdisha FC 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOdisha FC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mohun Bagan Super Giant 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Odisha FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.