Will Club León FC win on 2026-11-08?

14 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 78¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 9

Yes23¢No77¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$20.0K

Combined PnL

$538.09

Smart Money Entry

74¢ → 77.5¢

+5% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 20 top traders (70%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$19.6K

Total Shares25,396

Combined PnL+$563.84

Yes6 traders

Total Value$387.33

Total Shares1,687

Combined PnL-$25.74

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 73.8¢	$6.1K	$6.4K	+$285.88	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 73¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$67.66	46% 30580-35679 (66259)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 74.6¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$32.08	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 74.2¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$103.05	50% 32582-32710 (65292)
GC GC-P	Noavg 74¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$30	57% 22246-16603 (38849)
NM NM-P	Noavg 74.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$5.49	58% 22573-16672 (39245)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 74.6¢	$563.26	$592.96	+$29.7	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
0xheavy888	Noavg 73.5¢	$340	$353	+$13	56% 8780-6967 (15747)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 76¢	$303.99	$301.99	-$2	50% 2217-2191 (4408)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 24.1¢	$259.7	$242.17	-$17.53	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 76.9¢	$285.28	$218.38	-$4.9	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.3¢	$72.13	$69.87	-$2.26	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540<$100	Noavg 80¢	$66.24	$69	+$2.76	82% 2718-602 (3320)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 70¢	$56.37	$56.45	+$0.08	50% 27970-27422 (55392)
PT PT-S7CTR<$100	Yesavg 23.3¢	$81.85	$55.29	-$4.29	46% 3489-4043 (7532)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 73.6¢	$38.43	$39.72	+$1.29	51% 6692-6432 (13124)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 77¢	$13.24	$12.98	-$0.26	65% 25418-13617 (39035)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.4¢	$12.93	$11.39	-$1.54	53% 15513-13750 (29263)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$4.2	$4.5	+$0.3	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.8¢	$4.53	$4.11	-$0.42	47% 2148-2414 (4562)

Flaznorp

Invested

$6,093.95

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$285.88

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$3,293

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$67.66

Record

46%

30580-35679 (66259)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$2,750.49

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$32.08

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,439.34

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$103.05

Record

50%

32582-32710 (65292)

GC-P

Invested

$1,480

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$30

Record

57%

22246-16603 (38849)

NM-P

Invested

$1,411.5

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$5.49

Record

58%

22573-16672 (39245)

SnakeBall

Invested

$563.26

Value

$592.96

PnL

+$29.7

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

0xheavy888

Invested

$340

Value

$353

PnL

+$13

Record

56%

8780-6967 (15747)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$303.99

Value

$301.99

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

2217-2191 (4408)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$259.7

Value

$242.17

PnL

-$17.53

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

38791873984189

Invested

$285.28

Value

$218.38

PnL

-$4.9

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.13

Value

$69.87

PnL

-$2.26

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540<$100

Invested

$66.24

Value

$69

PnL

+$2.76

Record

82%

2718-602 (3320)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$56.37

Value

$56.45

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

PT-S7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.85

Value

$55.29

PnL

-$4.29

Record

46%

3489-4043 (7532)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$38.43

Value

$39.72

PnL

+$1.29

Record

51%

6692-6432 (13124)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$13.24

Value

$12.98

PnL

-$0.26

Record

65%

25418-13617 (39035)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.93

Value

$11.39

PnL

-$1.54

Record

53%

15513-13750 (29263)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0.3

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.53

Value

$4.11

PnL

-$0.42

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 20 top traders (70%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.