Will Querétaro FC vs. Club Puebla end in a draw?

10 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (53%) · No at 96¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 9

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$121.72

Smart Money Entry

79.7¢ → 95.5¢

+20% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 19 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares7,981

Combined PnL+$245.45

Yes9 traders

Total Value$773.34

Total Shares4,548

Combined PnL-$123.73

No — 53%Yes — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Noavg 76¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$57.06	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 83.1¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$124.72	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 86.1¢	$888.98	$986.17	+$97.19	50% 32582-32710 (65292)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 77.1¢	$328.79	$391.87	+$63.08	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 24¢	$1.5K	$382.5	+$22.5	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 14.6¢	$107.2	$161.04	+$53.84	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Yesavg 17.7¢	$498.72	$160.49	-$338.24	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 17.7¢	$462.96	$117.57	-$345.38
└ No leg	Noavg 79.6¢	$35.77	$42.92	+$7.15
NM NM-PCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$120	$132.5	+$12.5	58% 22573-16672 (39245)
PT PT-S7<$100	Noavg 79.1¢	$80.76	$87.96	+$7.2	46% 3489-4043 (7532)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 15.9¢	$183.42	$51.76	-$131.66	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 84.2¢	$44.01	$47.4	+$3.38	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Noavg 78¢	$32.76	$35.07	+$2.31	56% 2669-2059 (4728)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Noavg 85.1¢	$22.12	$24.83	+$2.71	53% 3778-3377 (7155)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.4¢	$98.78	$24.22	-$74.56	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.2¢	$18.18	$14.69	-$3.48	53% 15513-13750 (29263)
dips.<$100	Noavg 82¢	$11.48	$13.37	+$1.89	46% 12136-14078 (26214)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$4.08	$4.51	+$0.42	57% 22246-16603 (38849)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 74¢	$2.85	$2.87	+$0.02	53% 2999-2623 (5622)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$4.41	$1.81	-$2.61	46% 30580-35679 (66259)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$1	$0.32	-$0.68	65% 25418-13617 (39035)

nigiri99

Invested

$2,891.04

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$57.06

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,322.63

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$124.72

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$888.98

Value

$986.17

PnL

+$97.19

Record

50%

32582-32710 (65292)

38791873984189

Invested

$328.79

Value

$391.87

PnL

+$63.08

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,500

Value

$382.5

PnL

+$22.5

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$107.2

Value

$161.04

PnL

+$53.84

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$498.72

Value

$160.49

PnL

-$338.24

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

Both legs:

Yes$462.9617.7¢-$345.38

No$35.7779.6¢+$7.15

NM-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$120

Value

$132.5

PnL

+$12.5

Record

58%

22573-16672 (39245)

PT-S7<$100

Invested

$80.76

Value

$87.96

PnL

+$7.2

Record

46%

3489-4043 (7532)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$183.42

Value

$51.76

PnL

-$131.66

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$44.01

Value

$47.4

PnL

+$3.38

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

NordhavenCap<$100

Invested

$32.76

Value

$35.07

PnL

+$2.31

Record

56%

2669-2059 (4728)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Invested

$22.12

Value

$24.83

PnL

+$2.71

Record

53%

3778-3377 (7155)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.78

Value

$24.22

PnL

-$74.56

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.18

Value

$14.69

PnL

-$3.48

Record

53%

15513-13750 (29263)

dips.<$100

Invested

$11.48

Value

$13.37

PnL

+$1.89

Record

46%

12136-14078 (26214)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.08

Value

$4.51

PnL

+$0.42

Record

57%

22246-16603 (38849)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.87

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

2999-2623 (5622)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.41

Value

$1.81

PnL

-$2.61

Record

46%

30580-35679 (66259)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$0.68

Record

65%

25418-13617 (39035)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 19 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.