Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nets, while the market favors Mavericks (99%). 5 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Mavericks (-11.5)

5 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (26%) · Nets at 0.9¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 9

Mavericks>99¢Nets<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nets

Consensus Traders

Nets 26%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.1K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

58.3¢ → 0.9¢

-98% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNets at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

5 of 19 top traders (26%)Underdog side (market favors Mavericks 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks99%

Nets1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nets5 traders

Total Value$12.2K

Total Shares20,184

Combined PnL+$435.29

Mavericks14 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares7,325

Combined PnL+$963.53

Nets — 26%Mavericks — 74%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNets 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMavericks 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedMavericks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Mavericks 80% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Netsavg 59.6¢	$10.9K	$11.7K	+$723.02	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Mavericksavg 40.3¢	$5.2K	$4.9K	-$312.3	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 40.3¢	$4.1K	$3.9K	-$387.56
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 59.1¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$75.26
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Mavericksavg 77.8¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$243.38	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
FL Flaznorp	Mavericksavg 42.7¢	$642.22	$1.2K	+$524.93	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
RN1	Mavericksavg 63.2¢	$400.45	$622.95	+$222.51	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
HI hi774c	Mavericksavg 40¢	$550.29	$502.14	-$48.15	46% 5629-6541 (12170)
VeryLucky888	Mavericksavg 40.5¢	$397.91	$367.59	-$30.32	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Netsavg 63¢	$255.15	$257.18	+$2.03	54% 5366-4577 (9943)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Netsavg 56.6¢	$460.74	$252.5	-$208.24	53% 13686-12064 (25750)
38 38791873984189	Mavericksavg 82¢	$287.56	$248.89	-$38.67	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Mavericksavg 43¢	$143.84	$230.81	+$86.97	46% 2028-2381 (4409)
A4 0xa466...1c77	Mavericksavg 80.8¢	$161.6	$156	-$5.6	—
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Mavericksavg 37¢	$400	$146	-$2	50% 2217-2191 (4408)
SE sentrio	Mavericksavg 40.2¢	$129.98	$120.89	-$9.09	50% 27970-27422 (55392)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Mavericksavg 41¢	$80.56	$71.76	-$8.8	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
PA Pan9X<$100	Mavericksavg 49.6¢	$60.42	$59.85	+$31.23	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Netsavg 15.6¢	$118.08	$42.06	-$76.02	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
RL RLWG<$100	Mavericksavg 41¢	$10	$9.13	-$0.88	50% 8560-8732 (17292)
TA takeormake<$100	Mavericksavg 81¢	$7.38	$5.4	-$1.98	52% 5562-5184 (10746)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Netsavg 47¢	$9.75	$4.25	-$5.5	50% 5216-5115 (10331)

nigiri99CTR

Nets

Invested

$10,948.28

Value

$11.7K

PnL

+$723.02

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$5,240.27

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$312.3

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

Both legs:

Mavericks$4,146.0740.3¢-$387.56

Nets$1,007.7959.1¢+$75.26

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Mavericks

Invested

$1,021.65

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$243.38

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

Flaznorp

Mavericks

Invested

$642.22

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$524.93

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

RN1

Mavericks

Invested

$400.45

Value

$622.95

PnL

+$222.51

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

hi774c

Mavericks

Invested

$550.29

Value

$502.14

PnL

-$48.15

Record

46%

5629-6541 (12170)

VeryLucky888

Mavericks

Invested

$397.91

Value

$367.59

PnL

-$30.32

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

SunlineTickerCTR

Nets

Invested

$255.15

Value

$257.18

PnL

+$2.03

Record

54%

5366-4577 (9943)

justaluckydudeCTR

Nets

Invested

$460.74

Value

$252.5

PnL

-$208.24

Record

53%

13686-12064 (25750)

38791873984189

Mavericks

Invested

$287.56

Value

$248.89

PnL

-$38.67

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Mavericks

Invested

$143.84

Value

$230.81

PnL

+$86.97

Record

46%

2028-2381 (4409)

0xa466...1c77

Mavericks

Invested

$161.6

Value

$156

PnL

-$5.6

Record

—

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Mavericks

Invested

$400

Value

$146

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

2217-2191 (4408)

sentrio

Mavericks

Invested

$129.98

Value

$120.89

PnL

-$9.09

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

SnakeBall<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$80.56

Value

$71.76

PnL

-$8.8

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

Pan9X<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$60.42

Value

$59.85

PnL

+$31.23

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

6512395314597884CTR

Nets

Invested

$118.08

Value

$42.06

PnL

-$76.02

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

RLWG<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$10

Value

$9.13

PnL

-$0.88

Record

50%

8560-8732 (17292)

takeormake<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$7.38

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$1.98

Record

52%

5562-5184 (10746)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$9.75

Value

$4.25

PnL

-$5.5

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

Research grade

AvoidNets at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

5 of 19 top traders (26%)Underdog side (market favors Mavericks 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNets 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMavericks 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedMavericks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Mavericks 80% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.0%

0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4917.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

5017.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.