Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (62%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 221.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (64%) · Over at 39¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 11

Over39¢Under61¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 64%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

-$199.49

Smart Money Entry

51.1¢ → 38.5¢

-25% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 39%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Under 62%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$971.51

Total Shares2,150

Combined PnL-$242.61

Under4 traders

Total Value$374.27

Total Shares635

Combined PnL+$43.12

Over — 64%Under — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 53.5¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$65.01	56% 488-383 (871)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.5¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$84.81
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.9¢	$442.14	$461.94	+$19.8
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$80.98	51% 3172-3072 (6244)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$151.64
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.1¢	$728.32	$798.99	+$70.67
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Overavg 56¢	$2.1K	$982.38	-$357.08	54% 217-188 (405)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$1.1K	$743.31	-$413.44
└ Under leg	Underavg 47¢	$182.71	$239.07	+$56.37
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 57.6¢	$867.52	$818.79	-$48.72	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.6¢	$515.73	$604.19	+$88.46
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.3¢	$351.79	$214.61	-$137.18
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 47.5¢	$1.1K	$797.29	-$217.52	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.5¢	$781.61	$502.16	-$279.45
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.7¢	$232.39	$295.13	+$61.93
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 52¢	$550.9	$414.64	-$37.19	48% 949-1019 (1968)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Overavg 47.8¢	$467.16	$341.68	+$16.29	28% 279-730 (1009)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.8¢	$202.12	$190.3	-$1.62
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.5¢	$133.48	$151.39	+$17.91
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Overavg 52.3¢	$271.36	$248.81	-$22.55	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.3¢	$211.17	$189.73	-$21.43
└ Under leg	Underavg 54¢	$60.19	$59.07	-$1.11
LI Limousin	Underavg 49.1¢	$196.64	$220.35	+$23.71	28% 285-731 (1016)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 46¢	$140.76	$156.06	+$15.3	30% 134-317 (451)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Overavg 51¢	$188.38	$118.2	-$70.18	51% 3680-3510 (7190)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Overavg 52.4¢	$181.97	$111.04	-$70.93	62% 2352-1445 (3797)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 49¢	$66.74	$92.62	+$25.88	28% 275-716 (991)
SU suitcase6628CTR	Overavg 51.6¢	$144.4	$89.6	-$54.8	64% 175-97 (272)
PA Pan9XCTR	Overavg 52.2¢	$104.69	$61.17	-$9.95	49% 444-470 (914)
LR lryyyARB<$100	Overavg 53¢	$69.29	$53.54	-$15.75	50% 182-181 (363)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$46.64	$30.36	-$16.28
└ Under leg	Underavg 64¢	$22.65	$23.18	+$0.53
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 58¢	$42.19	$35.64	-$6.55	48% 190-206 (396)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 58¢	$27.98	$25.66	+$0.08	54% 383-322 (705)
dips.CTR	Overavg 53.6¢	$101.9	$20.8	-$14.85	—

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,226.53

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$65.01

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

Both legs:

Over$1,784.3953.5¢-$84.81

Under$442.1446.9¢+$19.8

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,012.3

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$80.98

Record

51%

3172-3072 (6244)

Both legs:

Over$1,283.9751¢-$151.64

Under$728.3250.1¢+$70.67

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,086.15

Value

$982.38

PnL

-$357.08

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

Both legs:

Over$1,081.1756¢-$413.44

Under$182.7147¢+$56.37

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$867.52

Value

$818.79

PnL

-$48.72

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

Both legs:

Under$515.7357.6¢+$88.46

Over$351.7953.3¢-$137.18

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,075

Value

$797.29

PnL

-$217.52

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

Both legs:

Over$781.6147.5¢-$279.45

Under$232.3954.7¢+$61.93

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$550.9

Value

$414.64

PnL

-$37.19

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

VenusianARB<$100

Over

Invested

$467.16

Value

$341.68

PnL

+$16.29

Record

28%

279-730 (1009)

Both legs:

Over$202.1247.8¢-$1.62

Under$133.4848.5¢+$17.91

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Over

Invested

$271.36

Value

$248.81

PnL

-$22.55

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

Both legs:

Over$211.1752.3¢-$21.43

Under$60.1954¢-$1.11

Limousin

Under

Invested

$196.64

Value

$220.35

PnL

+$23.71

Record

28%

285-731 (1016)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$140.76

Value

$156.06

PnL

+$15.3

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Over

Invested

$188.38

Value

$118.2

PnL

-$70.18

Record

51%

3680-3510 (7190)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Over

Invested

$181.97

Value

$111.04

PnL

-$70.93

Record

62%

2352-1445 (3797)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$66.74

Value

$92.62

PnL

+$25.88

Record

28%

275-716 (991)

suitcase6628CTR

Over

Invested

$144.4

Value

$89.6

PnL

-$54.8

Record

64%

175-97 (272)

Pan9XCTR

Over

Invested

$104.69

Value

$61.17

PnL

-$9.95

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

lryyyARB<$100

Over

Invested

$69.29

Value

$53.54

PnL

-$15.75

Record

50%

182-181 (363)

Both legs:

Invested

$42.19

Value

$35.64

PnL

-$6.55

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$27.98

Value

$25.66

PnL

+$0.08

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

dips.CTR

Over

Invested

$101.9

Value

$20.8

PnL

-$14.85

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidOver at 39%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Under 62%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.