Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 11 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 221.5

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Under (65%) · Under at 47¢ · $33K held · ends Nov 12

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 65%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$32.8K

Combined PnL

$125.34

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 46.5¢

-3% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 17 top traders (65%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$16.0K

Total Shares29,993

Combined PnL+$349.2

Under11 traders

Total Value$16.5K

Total Shares34,884

Combined PnL-$223.86

Over — 35%Under — 65%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Overavg 52.3¢	$12.2K	$12.5K	+$270.77	54% 521-440 (961)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 47¢	$8.4K	$8.3K	-$89.08	53% 1799-1610 (3409)
HG hgawxCTR	Underavg 48¢	$3.9K	$3.8K	-$40.54	6% 3-44 (47)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 51.2¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$73.58	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941CTR	Underavg 50¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$40	0% 0-106 (106)
KA KasonWongCTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.0K	$980	-$20	23% 7-24 (31)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 51¢	$765	$735	-$30	14% 75-471 (546)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Overavg 53¢	$348.17	$351.45	+$3.28	49% 497-522 (1019)
73 739633786CTR	Underavg 48¢	$348.96	$345.33	-$3.63	6% 11-189 (200)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 48¢	$257.98	$263.13	+$5.14	48% 1322-1438 (2760)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$132.48	$133.86	+$1.38
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$125.5	$129.27	+$3.77
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 48¢	$212.57	$214.79	+$2.21	45% 263-317 (580)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 47.8¢	$131.67	$128.05	-$3.62	51% 446-421 (867)
NM NM-P<$100	Overavg 52¢	$91	$91.88	+$0.88	59% 3476-2367 (5843)
GC GC-P<$100	Overavg 52¢	$56.44	$56.98	+$0.54	20% 97-381 (478)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$42.5	$43.31	+$0.8	48% 662-709 (1371)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 50¢	$20.47	$20.62	+$0.15	54% 565-474 (1039)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 48.6¢	$8.46	$8.45	-$0.01	37% 341-573 (914)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$1.73	$1.75	+$0.02	38% 137-221 (358)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Over

Invested

$12,202.96

Value

$12.5K

PnL

+$270.77

Record

54%

521-440 (961)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$8,373.76

Value

$8.3K

PnL

-$89.08

Record

53%

1799-1610 (3409)

hgawxCTR

Under

Invested

$3,878.38

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$40.54

Record

3-44 (47)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$2,927.68

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$73.58

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941CTR

Under

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$40

Record

0-106 (106)

KasonWongCTR

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$980

PnL

-$20

Record

23%

7-24 (31)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$765

Value

$735

PnL

-$30

Record

14%

75-471 (546)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Over

Invested

$348.17

Value

$351.45

PnL

+$3.28

Record

49%

497-522 (1019)

739633786CTR

Under

Invested

$348.96

Value

$345.33

PnL

-$3.63

Record

11-189 (200)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$257.98

Value

$263.13

PnL

+$5.14

Record

48%

1322-1438 (2760)

Both legs:

Under$132.4848¢+$1.38

Over$125.550¢+$3.77

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$212.57

Value

$214.79

PnL

+$2.21

Record

45%

263-317 (580)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$131.67

Value

$128.05

PnL

-$3.62

Record

51%

446-421 (867)

NM-P<$100

Over

Invested

$91

Value

$91.88

PnL

+$0.88

Record

59%

3476-2367 (5843)

GC-P<$100

Over

Invested

$56.44

Value

$56.98

PnL

+$0.54

Record

20%

97-381 (478)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$42.5

Value

$43.31

PnL

+$0.8

Record

48%

662-709 (1371)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$20.47

Value

$20.62

PnL

+$0.15

Record

54%

565-474 (1039)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.46

Value

$8.45

PnL

-$0.01

Record

37%

341-573 (914)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.73

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0.02

Record

38%

137-221 (358)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 17 top traders (65%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.