Spread: Heat (-4.5)

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (53%) · Heat at 84¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 11

Heat84¢Jazz16¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 53%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.7K

Combined PnL

$-6.0K

Smart Money Entry

82.1¢ → 83.5¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

9 of 17 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat84%

Jazz17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat9 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares11,805

Combined PnL-$391.16

Jazz8 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares22,509

Combined PnL$-5.6K

Heat — 53%Jazz — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpHeat 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJazz 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedHeat 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Heat 50% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Heatavg 85.1¢	$5.8K	$4.8K	-$130.3	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Jazzavg 40¢	$5.4K	$2.1K	$-3.3K	57% 3075-2312 (5387)
HI hi774cCTR	Jazzavg 40¢	$3.3K	$1.3K	$-2.1K	8% 37-423 (460)
65 6512395314597884	Heatavg 85.9¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$146	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Heatavg 86¢	$1.0K	$888.75	-$130.35	62% 2365-1458 (3823)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Heatavg 85¢	$1.0K	$855.83	-$163.88	56% 504-395 (899)
38 38791873984189	Heatavg 63.2¢	$861.32	$810.66	+$19.93	48% 969-1052 (2021)
RN1	Heatavg 74.3¢	$678.08	$762.06	+$83.98	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
SU suitcase6628	Heatavg 86¢	$684.83	$473.13	-$2.03	64% 180-100 (280)
VeryLucky888	Heatavg 60¢	$213.6	$302.6	+$89	51% 330-319 (649)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Heatavg 68¢	$187.51	$137.75	-$1.5	49% 450-474 (924)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 68¢	$95.81	$105.75	+$0.94
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 27.4¢	$35.02	$32	-$2.44
TA takeormake	Heatavg 83.5¢	$112.1	$92.26	-$11.51	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Jazzavg 40¢	$80.38	$72.95	-$7.44	49% 220-229 (449)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 63¢	$40.16	$47.81	+$7.65
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 40¢	$40.22	$25.14	-$15.08
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Jazzavg 37¢	$148	$66	-$82	10% 89-787 (876)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Jazzavg 37¢	$55.5	$22.5	-$33	68% 1604-751 (2355)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Jazzavg 40¢	$40	$15	-$25	53% 5552-4939 (10491)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Jazzavg 41¢	$26.24	$9.6	-$16.64	11% 24-189 (213)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Jazzavg 34.7¢	$12.4	$8.23	-$4.17	35% 266-490 (756)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Jazzavg 40¢	$6.4	$2.4	-$4	29% 307-750 (1057)

Flaznorp

Heat

Invested

$5,820.41

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$130.3

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Jazz

Invested

$5,433.22

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

57%

3075-2312 (5387)

hi774cCTR

Jazz

Invested

$3,344

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

37-423 (460)

6512395314597884

Heat

Invested

$1,156

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$146

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Heat

Invested

$1,019.1

Value

$888.75

PnL

-$130.35

Record

62%

2365-1458 (3823)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Heat

Invested

$1,019.71

Value

$855.83

PnL

-$163.88

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

38791873984189

Heat

Invested

$861.32

Value

$810.66

PnL

+$19.93

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

RN1

Heat

Invested

$678.08

Value

$762.06

PnL

+$83.98

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

suitcase6628

Heat

Invested

$684.83

Value

$473.13

PnL

-$2.03

Record

64%

180-100 (280)

VeryLucky888

Heat

Invested

$213.6

Value

$302.6

PnL

+$89

Record

51%

330-319 (649)

Pan9XARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$187.51

Value

$137.75

PnL

-$1.5

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

Both legs:

Heat$95.8168¢+$0.94

Jazz$35.0227.4¢-$2.44

takeormake

Heat

Invested

$112.1

Value

$92.26

PnL

-$11.51

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$80.38

Value

$72.95

PnL

-$7.44

Record

49%

220-229 (449)

Both legs:

Heat$40.1663¢+$7.65

Jazz$40.2240¢-$15.08

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Jazz

Invested

$148

Value

$66

PnL

-$82

Record

10%

89-787 (876)

RLWGCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$55.5

Value

$22.5

PnL

-$33

Record

68%

1604-751 (2355)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$40

Value

$15

PnL

-$25

Record

53%

5552-4939 (10491)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$26.24

Value

$9.6

PnL

-$16.64

Record

11%

24-189 (213)

sentrioCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$12.4

Value

$8.23

PnL

-$4.17

Record

35%

266-490 (756)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$6.4

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$4

Record

29%

307-750 (1057)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

9 of 17 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpHeat 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJazz 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedHeat 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Heat 50% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.