Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Trail Blazers, while the market favors Thunder (57%). 11 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5)

11 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (61%) · Trail Blazers at 43¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 11

Trail Blazers43¢Thunder57¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 61%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

-$321.67

Smart Money Entry

43.4¢ → 42.5¢

-2% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

11 of 18 top traders (61%)Underdog side (market favors Thunder 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers43%

Thunder57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers11 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares9,310

Combined PnL-$297.42

Thunder7 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,689

Combined PnL-$24.25

Trail Blazers — 61%Thunder — 39%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Thunder) and the top 1000 (11 on Trail Blazers) disagree here.

sharpTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTrail Blazers 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedThunder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI Siddhartha1CTR	Trail Blazersavg 45¢	$2.7K	$2.3K	-$360.11	61% 92-60 (152)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Thunderavg 60.8¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$81.36	55% 541-436 (977)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Trail Blazersavg 40.2¢	$453.31	$478.99	+$25.68	51% 3187-3102 (6289)
FL Flaznorp	Thunderavg 56.4¢	$447.73	$456.59	+$8.86	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
BI biying88888CTR	Trail Blazersavg 39¢	$390	$425	+$35	28% 69-175 (244)
VeryLucky888	Thunderavg 55.7¢	$327.02	$358.12	+$31.1	51% 354-335 (689)
HO HomeRunHazard	Thunderavg 56¢	$272.87	$297.24	+$24.36	57% 3101-2332 (5433)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Trail Blazersavg 39.5¢	$133.45	$143.61	+$10.16	29% 322-773 (1095)
VE VenusianCTR	Trail Blazersavg 41¢	$133.44	$138.32	+$4.88	28% 317-800 (1117)
JU justaluckydude	Thunderavg 62¢	$123.38	$114.43	-$8.95	33% 160-331 (491)
TA takeormake<$100	Thunderavg 57.5¢	$92.31	$90.98	-$1.33	58% 3133-2226 (5359)
RN1ARB<$100	Thunderavg 45.5¢	$116.69	$87.65	+$22	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 45.5¢	$39.72	$50.25	+$21.56
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 42¢	$36.96	$37.4	+$0.44
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 39¢	$66.73	$72.72	+$5.99	29% 329-806 (1135)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 43¢	$47.93	$43.47	-$4.46	54% 1691-1468 (3159)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 40¢	$40	$42.5	+$2.5	53% 5575-4959 (10534)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 55¢	$55.55	$39.39	-$16.16	48% 1027-1110 (2137)
GC GC-P<$100	Thunderavg 55¢	$28.22	$31.3	+$3.08	17% 75-358 (433)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 44¢	$17.15	$16.09	-$1.06	49% 498-518 (1016)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 39.4¢	$2	$2.16	+$0.16	7% 31-415 (446)

Siddhartha1CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2,700.8

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$360.11

Record

61%

92-60 (152)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Thunder

Invested

$1,479.62

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$81.36

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

6512395314597884CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$453.31

Value

$478.99

PnL

+$25.68

Record

51%

3187-3102 (6289)

Flaznorp

Thunder

Invested

$447.73

Value

$456.59

PnL

+$8.86

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

biying88888CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$390

Value

$425

PnL

+$35

Record

28%

69-175 (244)

VeryLucky888

Thunder

Invested

$327.02

Value

$358.12

PnL

+$31.1

Record

51%

354-335 (689)

HomeRunHazard

Thunder

Invested

$272.87

Value

$297.24

PnL

+$24.36

Record

57%

3101-2332 (5433)

MadridTimeCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$133.45

Value

$143.61

PnL

+$10.16

Record

29%

322-773 (1095)

VenusianCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$133.44

Value

$138.32

PnL

+$4.88

Record

28%

317-800 (1117)

justaluckydude

Thunder

Invested

$123.38

Value

$114.43

PnL

-$8.95

Record

33%

160-331 (491)

takeormake<$100

Thunder

Invested

$92.31

Value

$90.98

PnL

-$1.33

Record

58%

3133-2226 (5359)

RN1ARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$116.69

Value

$87.65

PnL

+$22

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

Both legs:

Thunder$39.7245.5¢+$21.56

Trail Blazers$36.9642¢+$0.44

LimousinCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$66.73

Value

$72.72

PnL

+$5.99

Record

29%

329-806 (1135)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$47.93

Value

$43.47

PnL

-$4.46

Record

54%

1691-1468 (3159)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$40

Value

$42.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

5575-4959 (10534)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$55.55

Value

$39.39

PnL

-$16.16

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

GC-P<$100

Thunder

Invested

$28.22

Value

$31.3

PnL

+$3.08

Record

17%

75-358 (433)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$17.15

Value

$16.09

PnL

-$1.06

Record

49%

498-518 (1016)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

Value

$2.16

PnL

+$0.16

Record

31-415 (446)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

11 of 18 top traders (61%)Underdog side (market favors Thunder 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Thunder) and the top 1000 (11 on Trail Blazers) disagree here.

sharpTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTrail Blazers 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedThunder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.