Magic vs. Warriors

16 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (80%) · Warriors at 74¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 8

Magic27¢Warriors73¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.0K

Combined PnL

$6.39

Smart Money Entry

68.6¢ → 73.5¢

+7% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

16 of 20 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Magic27%

Warriors74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic4 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares30,937

Combined PnL-$123.68

Warriors16 traders

Total Value$12.1K

Total Shares17,386

Combined PnL+$130.08

Magic — 20%Warriors — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWarriors 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpMagic 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrWarriors 81% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedWarriors 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 79% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Magicavg 31¢	$7.2K	$7.2K	+$0	53% 667-585 (1252)
HO HomeRunHazard	Warriorsavg 68.2¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$48.83	54% 18479-15550 (34029)
VeryLucky888	Warriorsavg 68.6¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$28.77	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
nigiri99	Warriorsavg 69¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$18.67	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
PL plustiCTR	Magicavg 32.7¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$109.42	— 15-0 (15)
RI Richidd	Warriorsavg 69.3¢	$2.2K	$1.5K	+$3.94	49% 60-63 (123)
PU purplegatto	Warriorsavg 69.8¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$3.31	49% 6379-6554 (12933)
AP AppleTiiime	Warriorsavg 64.4¢	$446.79	$481.82	+$35.04	54% 75-64 (139)
TA takeormakeCTR	Magicavg 32¢	$433.01	$419.11	-$13.9	52% 5109-4675 (9784)
NM NM-P	Warriorsavg 69¢	$345	$346.84	+$1.84	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Warriorsavg 50¢	$400	$200.73	+$0.73	— 1-0 (1)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 50¢	$100	$138.73	+$38.73
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 50¢	$100	$62	-$38
FL Flaznorp	Warriorsavg 68.1¢	$176.71	$179.99	+$3.27	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
38 38791873984189	Warriorsavg 67.3¢	$635.21	$163.42	+$8.17	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
SE sentrio<$100	Warriorsavg 68¢	$87.43	$89.19	+$1.76	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Warriorsavg 73.9¢	$73.84	$81.63	+$8.93	51% 5012-4882 (9894)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 73.9¢	$44.35	$41.64	-$2.04
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 22.9¢	$29.49	$39.99	+$10.97
OD Oddstorm	Warriorsavg 64.3¢	$128.86	$37.81	-$20.6	48% 7449-7982 (15431)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Warriorsavg 65¢	$23.21	$24.77	+$1.56	53% 12584-11282 (23866)
0xheavy888<$100	Warriorsavg 68¢	$13.6	$13.9	+$0.3	56% 8223-6528 (14751)
PA Pan9X	Warriorsavg 67.5¢	$113.16	$13.3	+$1.33	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Magicavg 32¢	$25.85	$7.88	-$0.36	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
RL RLWG<$100	Warriorsavg 66¢	$5.2	$5.37	+$0.17	50% 8436-8484 (16920)
GA Gaditima<$100	Warriorsavg 65.2¢	$4.14	$4.41	+$0.35	47% 7500-8312 (15812)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Magic

Invested

$7,207.27

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

667-585 (1252)

HomeRunHazard

Warriors

Invested

$2,872.11

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$48.83

Record

54%

18479-15550 (34029)

VeryLucky888

Warriors

Invested

$2,571.31

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$28.77

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

nigiri99

Warriors

Invested

$2,575.39

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$18.67

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

plustiCTR

Magic

Invested

$2,068.35

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$109.42

Record

—

15-0 (15)

Richidd

Warriors

Invested

$2,163.94

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$3.94

Record

49%

60-63 (123)

purplegatto

Warriors

Invested

$1,156.48

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$3.31

Record

49%

6379-6554 (12933)

AppleTiiime

Warriors

Invested

$446.79

Value

$481.82

PnL

+$35.04

Record

54%

75-64 (139)

takeormakeCTR

Magic

Invested

$433.01

Value

$419.11

PnL

-$13.9

Record

52%

5109-4675 (9784)

NM-P

Warriors

Invested

$345

Value

$346.84

PnL

+$1.84

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$400

Value

$200.73

PnL

+$0.73

Record

—

1-0 (1)

Both legs:

Warriors$10050¢+$38.73

Magic$10050¢-$38

Flaznorp

Warriors

Invested

$176.71

Value

$179.99

PnL

+$3.27

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

38791873984189

Warriors

Invested

$635.21

Value

$163.42

PnL

+$8.17

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

sentrio<$100

Warriors

Invested

$87.43

Value

$89.19

PnL

+$1.76

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$73.84

Value

$81.63

PnL

+$8.93

Record

51%

5012-4882 (9894)

Both legs:

Warriors$44.3573.9¢-$2.04

Magic$29.4922.9¢+$10.97

Oddstorm

Warriors

Invested

$128.86

Value

$37.81

PnL

-$20.6

Record

48%

7449-7982 (15431)

BoomLaLa<$100

Warriors

Invested

$23.21

Value

$24.77

PnL

+$1.56

Record

53%

12584-11282 (23866)

0xheavy888<$100

Warriors

Invested

$13.6

Value

$13.9

PnL

+$0.3

Record

56%

8223-6528 (14751)

Pan9X

Warriors

Invested

$113.16

Value

$13.3

PnL

+$1.33

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$25.85

Value

$7.88

PnL

-$0.36

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

RLWG<$100

Warriors

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.37

PnL

+$0.17

Record

50%

8436-8484 (16920)

Gaditima<$100

Warriors

Invested

$4.14

Value

$4.41

PnL

+$0.35

Record

47%

7500-8312 (15812)

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

16 of 20 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWarriors 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpMagic 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrWarriors 81% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedWarriors 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 79% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.