Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kings, while the market favors Magic (58%). 8 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Magic (-4.5)

8 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (47%) · Kings at 42¢ · $51K held · ended Nov 11

Magic58¢Kings42¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 47%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$50.8K

Combined PnL

$3.3K

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 42¢

-13% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

8 of 17 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Magic 58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Magic58%

Kings42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic9 traders

Total Value$27.8K

Total Shares44,804

Combined PnL+$4.7K

Kings8 traders

Total Value$22.2K

Total Shares48,634

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Magic — 53%Kings — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Magic) and the top 1000 (13 on Kings) disagree here.

whaleKings 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperKings 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMagic 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedMagic 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Kings 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Magicavg 50¢	$13.5K	$16.0K	+$2.6K	49% 488-513 (1001)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Kingsavg 50¢	$13.2K	$13.4K	+$132.34	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
HO HomeRunHazard	Magicavg 53¢	$7.2K	$8.9K	+$1.7K	57% 3075-2312 (5387)
RJ RJW1CTR	Kingsavg 47¢	$8.8K	$7.5K	$-1.2K	47% 116-129 (245)
VeryLucky888	Magicavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$268.22	51% 330-319 (649)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Magicavg 51.7¢	$746.47	$754.69	+$8.22	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 51.7¢	$416.38	$487.68	+$71.3
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 48.8¢	$330.09	$267.01	-$63.08
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Kingsavg 39.2¢	$542.35	$504.6	-$37.76	56% 504-395 (899)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Kingsavg 47¢	$560.7	$405.61	-$155.09	42% 574-809 (1383)
65 6512395314597884	Magicavg 57.8¢	$382.88	$383.96	+$1.08	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
RN1	Magicavg 63¢	$374.4	$341.71	-$32.69	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
NM NM-P	Magicavg 53¢	$265	$330	+$65	60% 3445-2339 (5784)
GC GC-P	Magicavg 53¢	$265	$330	+$65	16% 68-351 (419)
38 38791873984189	Magicavg 54.3¢	$202.27	$140.33	+$20.94	48% 969-1052 (2021)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Kingsavg 47¢	$188	$136	-$52	10% 89-787 (876)
LI LimousinCTR	Kingsavg 46¢	$132.04	$94.72	-$37.32	29% 314-785 (1099)
TA takeormakeCTR	Kingsavg 49.7¢	$111.3	$90.72	-$20.58	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Kingsavg 44¢	$80.36	$66.79	-$13.57	49% 220-229 (449)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 57¢	$40.16	$36.63	-$3.52
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 44¢	$40.2	$30.15	-$10.05
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Kingsavg 50.5¢	$48.09	$32.06	-$3.27	49% 450-474 (924)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Magicavg 57¢	$5	$4.25	-$0.75	26% 185-522 (707)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Magic

Invested

$13,464.53

Value

$16.0K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

49%

488-513 (1001)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Kings

Invested

$13,233.68

Value

$13.4K

PnL

+$132.34

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

HomeRunHazard

Magic

Invested

$7,166.18

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

57%

3075-2312 (5387)

RJW1CTR

Kings

Invested

$8,761.58

Value

$7.5K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

47%

116-129 (245)

VeryLucky888

Magic

Invested

$1,090.55

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$268.22

Record

51%

330-319 (649)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$746.47

Value

$754.69

PnL

+$8.22

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

Both legs:

Magic$416.3851.7¢+$71.3

Kings$330.0948.8¢-$63.08

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Kings

Invested

$542.35

Value

$504.6

PnL

-$37.76

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

BreakTheBankCTR

Kings

Invested

$560.7

Value

$405.61

PnL

-$155.09

Record

42%

574-809 (1383)

6512395314597884

Magic

Invested

$382.88

Value

$383.96

PnL

+$1.08

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

RN1

Magic

Invested

$374.4

Value

$341.71

PnL

-$32.69

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

NM-P

Magic

Invested

$265

Value

$330

PnL

+$65

Record

60%

3445-2339 (5784)

GC-P

Magic

Invested

$265

Value

$330

PnL

+$65

Record

16%

68-351 (419)

38791873984189

Magic

Invested

$202.27

Value

$140.33

PnL

+$20.94

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Kings

Invested

$188

Value

$136

PnL

-$52

Record

10%

89-787 (876)

LimousinCTR

Kings

Invested

$132.04

Value

$94.72

PnL

-$37.32

Record

29%

314-785 (1099)

takeormakeCTR

Kings

Invested

$111.3

Value

$90.72

PnL

-$20.58

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$80.36

Value

$66.79

PnL

-$13.57

Record

49%

220-229 (449)

Both legs:

Invested

$48.09

Value

$32.06

PnL

-$3.27

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

ameisgoat11<$100

Magic

Invested

Value

$4.25

PnL

-$0.75

Record

26%

185-522 (707)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

8 of 17 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Magic 58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Magic) and the top 1000 (13 on Kings) disagree here.

whaleKings 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperKings 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMagic 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedMagic 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Kings 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.2%

42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$126.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

226.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.