Magic vs. Jazz

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (53%) · Magic at 61¢ · $52K held · ends Nov 12

Magic61¢Jazz39¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Magic

Consensus Traders

Magic 53%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$52.0K

Combined PnL

-$275.56

Smart Money Entry

60.8¢ → 60.5¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

9 of 17 top traders (53%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Magic61%

Jazz40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic9 traders

Total Value$34.9K

Total Shares56,660

Combined PnL+$433.95

Jazz8 traders

Total Value$11.3K

Total Shares29,426

Combined PnL-$709.51

Magic — 53%Jazz — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperMagic 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJazz 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 56% · 18

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Magicavg 62¢	$16.9K	$16.9K	-$0	61% 927-593 (1520)
HE hewhodoesit	Magicavg 59¢	$9.8K	$10.2K	+$416.67	— 5-6 (11)
HO HomeRunHazard	Magicavg 60.7¢	$6.3K	$6.3K	-$22.38	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Jazzavg 41¢	$5.4K	$5.1K	-$328.75	52% 14-13 (27)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Jazzavg 41¢	$3.7K	$3.5K	-$225.89	51% 3716-3548 (7264)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Magicavg 60.3¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$10	20% 98-382 (480)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 60.3¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$6.25
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 39.3¢	$885	$888.75	+$3.75
NM NM-PARB<$100	Magicavg 60.3¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$7.29	59% 3477-2368 (5845)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 60.3¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$5.05
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 39.4¢	$808.3	$810.54	+$2.24
PL pleaseletmealoneCTR	Jazzavg 41¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$125	— 2-4 (6)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Magicavg 60.4¢	$1.0K	$843.58	+$3.38	48% 1375-1500 (2875)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 60.4¢	$628.43	$629.1	+$0.67
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 39¢	$211.77	$214.49	+$2.71
RI Richidd	Magicavg 61¢	$600	$609.84	+$9.84	52% 83-76 (159)
SU SunlineTicker	Magicavg 59.3¢	$530.33	$540.87	+$10.54	70% 1671-717 (2388)
AS asuka7	Magicavg 58¢	$278.92	$295.75	+$16.83	3% 9-313 (322)
SE sentrioCTR	Jazzavg 40.8¢	$296.87	$281.77	-$15.1	38% 351-584 (935)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Jazzavg 38¢	$209.88	$209.88	+$0	30% 380-875 (1255)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Jazzavg 40¢	$186.97	$177.62	-$9.35	3% 7-201 (208)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Jazzavg 39¢	$171.92	$167.51	-$4.41	45% 267-322 (589)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Jazzavg 38.9¢	$107.29	$108.02	+$0.73	55% 625-514 (1139)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 38.9¢	$64.62	$65.7	+$1.08
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 61¢	$42.67	$42.32	-$0.35
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Jazzavg 38.9¢	$41.79	$40.79	-$1	22% 33-119 (152)
PA Pan9X	Magicavg 60¢	$108.25	$22.33	+$2.51	49% 673-714 (1387)
RL RLWG<$100	Magicavg 62¢	$9.3	$9.3	+$0	67% 1650-803 (2453)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Magicavg 60¢	$5.05	$5	-$0.05	32% 295-621 (916)

darkumbreon88

Magic

Invested

$16,868.2

Value

$16.9K

PnL

-$0

Record

61%

927-593 (1520)

hewhodoesit

Magic

Invested

$9,833.33

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$416.67

Record

—

5-6 (11)

HomeRunHazard

Magic

Invested

$6,302.09

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$22.38

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Jazz

Invested

$5,391.5

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$328.75

Record

52%

14-13 (27)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Jazz

Invested

$3,704.68

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$225.89

Record

51%

3716-3548 (7264)

GC-PARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$2,542.5

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$10

Record

20%

98-382 (480)

Both legs:

Magic$1,657.560.3¢+$6.25

Jazz$88539.3¢+$3.75

NM-PARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$2,252.83

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$7.29

Record

59%

3477-2368 (5845)

Both legs:

Magic$1,444.5360.3¢+$5.05

Jazz$808.339.4¢+$2.24

pleaseletmealoneCTR

Jazz

Invested

$2,049.97

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$125

Record

—

2-4 (6)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$1,046.51

Value

$843.58

PnL

+$3.38

Record

48%

1375-1500 (2875)

Both legs:

Magic$628.4360.4¢+$0.67

Jazz$211.7739¢+$2.71

Richidd

Magic

Invested

$600

Value

$609.84

PnL

+$9.84

Record

52%

83-76 (159)

SunlineTicker

Magic

Invested

$530.33

Value

$540.87

PnL

+$10.54

Record

70%

1671-717 (2388)

asuka7

Magic

Invested

$278.92

Value

$295.75

PnL

+$16.83

Record

9-313 (322)

sentrioCTR

Jazz

Invested

$296.87

Value

$281.77

PnL

-$15.1

Record

38%

351-584 (935)

LightParadoxCTR

Jazz

Invested

$209.88

Value

$209.88

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

380-875 (1255)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Jazz

Invested

$186.97

Value

$177.62

PnL

-$9.35

Record

7-201 (208)

SnakeBallCTR

Jazz

Invested

$171.92

Value

$167.51

PnL

-$4.41

Record

45%

267-322 (589)

ghorrockARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$107.29

Value

$108.02

PnL

+$0.73

Record

55%

625-514 (1139)

Both legs:

Jazz$64.6238.9¢+$1.08

Magic$42.6761¢-$0.35

OddstormCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$41.79

Value

$40.79

PnL

-$1

Record

22%

33-119 (152)

Pan9X

Magic

Invested

$108.25

Value

$22.33

PnL

+$2.51

Record

49%

673-714 (1387)

RLWG<$100

Magic

Invested

$9.3

Value

$9.3

PnL

+$0

Record

67%

1650-803 (2453)

ameisgoat11<$100

Magic

Invested

$5.05

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

32%

295-621 (916)

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

9 of 17 top traders (53%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperMagic 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJazz 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 56% · 18

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.