76ers vs. Bulls

6 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (29%) · 76ers at 79¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 8

76ers79¢Bulls21¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

-$102.67

Smart Money Entry

77.6¢ → 78.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

6 of 21 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers79%

Bulls22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers6 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares9,490

Combined PnL-$76.1

Bulls15 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares8,671

Combined PnL-$26.57

76ers — 29%Bulls — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-54 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBulls 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Bulls 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	76ersavg 77.8¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	-$89.77	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
VeryLucky888CTR	Bullsavg 22¢	$961.26	$937.37	-$23.88	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
38 38791873984189	76ersavg 78.8¢	$1.0K	$841.77	-$1.21	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Bullsavg 21¢	$801.46	$820.97	+$19.51	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 21¢	$473.76	$485.04	+$11.28
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 76.6¢	$327.7	$335.93	+$8.23
GA Gaditima	76ersavg 75.6¢	$655.5	$667.77	+$12.27	47% 7503-8319 (15822)
DA darkumbreon88	76ersavg 76.2¢	$507.73	$509.95	+$2.22	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
drainedandpoorCTR	Bullsavg 21¢	$246.84	$252.72	+$5.88	48% 664-718 (1382)
NM NM-PCTR	Bullsavg 22¢	$217.19	$212.12	-$5.07	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GC GC-PCTR	Bullsavg 22.3¢	$168.98	$162.76	-$6.21	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Bullsavg 24¢	$133.06	$130.28	-$2.77	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Bullsavg 21¢	$54.9	$56.21	+$1.31	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
WE westing.v1CTR<$100	Bullsavg 22.9¢	$40.3	$37.91	-$2.39	— 0-2 (2)
GH ghorrock<$100	76ersavg 76¢	$40.09	$35.72	+$0.44	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Bullsavg 23¢	$32.55	$33.25	+$0.71	54% 542-460 (1002)
AP AppleTiiimeCTR<$100	Bullsavg 16¢	$19.13	$29.29	+$10.16	54% 75-64 (139)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Bullsavg 18.9¢	$49.92	$13.38	+$0.36	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Bullsavg 25.9¢	$17.17	$12.19	-$4.98	48% 7452-7984 (15436)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Bullsavg 23.9¢	$4.78	$4.7	-$0.08	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Bullsavg 23.9¢	$3.06	$3.01	-$0.05	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
AC Aceplus3<$100	76ersavg 79.8¢	$2.05	$2	-$0.05	58% 41-30 (71)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Bullsavg 23.9¢	$1.2	$1.19	-$0.02	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Bullsavg 12¢	$0.52	$0.99	+$0.47	19% 2981-12794 (15775)

nigiri99

76ers

Invested

$5,345.32

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$89.77

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bulls

Invested

$961.26

Value

$937.37

PnL

-$23.88

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

38791873984189

76ers

Invested

$1,031.55

Value

$841.77

PnL

-$1.21

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$801.46

Value

$820.97

PnL

+$19.51

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

Both legs:

Bulls$473.7621¢+$11.28

76ers$327.776.6¢+$8.23

Gaditima

76ers

Invested

$655.5

Value

$667.77

PnL

+$12.27

Record

47%

7503-8319 (15822)

darkumbreon88

76ers

Invested

$507.73

Value

$509.95

PnL

+$2.22

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

drainedandpoorCTR

Bulls

Invested

$246.84

Value

$252.72

PnL

+$5.88

Record

48%

664-718 (1382)

NM-PCTR

Bulls

Invested

$217.19

Value

$212.12

PnL

-$5.07

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

GC-PCTR

Bulls

Invested

$168.98

Value

$162.76

PnL

-$6.21

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

SnakeBallCTR

Bulls

Invested

$133.06

Value

$130.28

PnL

-$2.77

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

sentrioCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$54.9

Value

$56.21

PnL

+$1.31

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

westing.v1CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$40.3

Value

$37.91

PnL

-$2.39

Record

—

0-2 (2)

ghorrock<$100

76ers

Invested

$40.09

Value

$35.72

PnL

+$0.44

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$32.55

Value

$33.25

PnL

+$0.71

Record

54%

542-460 (1002)

AppleTiiimeCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$19.13

Value

$29.29

PnL

+$10.16

Record

54%

75-64 (139)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$49.92

Value

$13.38

PnL

+$0.36

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

OddstormCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$17.17

Value

$12.19

PnL

-$4.98

Record

48%

7452-7984 (15436)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$4.78

Value

$4.7

PnL

-$0.08

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$3.06

Value

$3.01

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

Aceplus3<$100

76ers

Invested

$2.05

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

41-30 (71)

VenusianCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.19

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.99

PnL

+$0.47

Record

19%

2981-12794 (15775)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

6 of 21 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-54 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBulls 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Bulls 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.