Spread: 76ers (-6.5)

14 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (78%) · Bulls at 91¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 8

76ers10¢Bulls90¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 78%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.1K

Combined PnL

-$144.92

Smart Money Entry

39.5¢ → 90.5¢

+129% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

14 of 18 top traders (78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers10%

Bulls91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers4 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares7,819

Combined PnL$-2.7K

Bulls14 traders

Total Value$9.7K

Total Shares16,084

Combined PnL+$2.5K

76ers — 22%Bulls — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBulls 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrBulls 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	76ersavg 62.2¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$165.01	57% 17059-13037 (30096)
HO HomeRunHazard	Bullsavg 39¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$2.96	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
FL Flaznorp	Bullsavg 30.1¢	$918.59	$1.8K	+$831.43	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Bullsavg 42.6¢	$813.72	$1.6K	+$811.07	46% 2024-2378 (4402)
MA MadridTime	Bullsavg 38.9¢	$670.93	$1.4K	+$703.42	47% 2130-2385 (4515)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	76ersavg 58.3¢	$982.53	$711.22	-$271.31	51% 5683-5537 (11220)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 36.4¢	$223.72	$528.99	+$305.27
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 58.3¢	$758.81	$182.22	-$576.59
JU justaluckydude	Bullsavg 37¢	$424.7	$688.86	+$264.16	53% 13686-12062 (25748)
HI hi774c	Bullsavg 37¢	$620.32	$628.49	+$8.16	46% 5627-6537 (12164)
TA takeormake	Bullsavg 51.1¢	$630.63	$624.6	-$6.04	52% 5560-5183 (10743)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	76ersavg 62.4¢	$3.3K	$559.7	$-2.8K	50% 5215-5114 (10329)
AN Anon455	Bullsavg 83.5¢	$636.26	$480.79	-$155.47	54% 3943-3319 (7262)
RN1ARB<$100	76ersavg 65.9¢	$596.64	$455.03	-$141.61	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 65.9¢	$472.39	$254.51	-$217.88
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 40¢	$124.25	$200.52	+$76.27
NM NM-P	Bullsavg 37¢	$190	$192.5	+$2.5	58% 22563-16669 (39232)
GC GC-P	Bullsavg 37¢	$500	$192.5	+$7.5	57% 22242-16601 (38843)
LI LightParadox	Bullsavg 36¢	$66.75	$157.6	+$90.85	47% 2124-2359 (4483)
VE Venusian	Bullsavg 37.8¢	$133.48	$111.34	-$22.14	47% 2177-2413 (4590)
38 38791873984189<$100	Bullsavg 39¢	$94.1	$95.63	+$1.53	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	76ersavg 59¢	$86.94	$88.13	+$1.19	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 59¢	$46.15	$47.33	+$2.74
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 39¢	$40.29	$40.8	-$1.55
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	76ersavg 58.5¢	$65.16	$16.72	-$48.44	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	76ersavg 48¢	$48	$14	-$34	50% 65490-65806 (131296)
SE sentrio<$100	Bullsavg 39¢	$13.54	$5.21	-$0.07	50% 27958-27406 (55364)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

76ers

Invested

$2,318.15

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$165.01

Record

57%

17059-13037 (30096)

HomeRunHazard

Bulls

Invested

$1,800.36

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$2.96

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

Flaznorp

Bulls

Invested

$918.59

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$831.43

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Bulls

Invested

$813.72

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$811.07

Record

46%

2024-2378 (4402)

MadridTime

Bulls

Invested

$670.93

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$703.42

Record

47%

2130-2385 (4515)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$982.53

Value

$711.22

PnL

-$271.31

Record

51%

5683-5537 (11220)

Both legs:

Bulls$223.7236.4¢+$305.27

76ers$758.8158.3¢-$576.59

justaluckydude

Bulls

Invested

$424.7

Value

$688.86

PnL

+$264.16

Record

53%

13686-12062 (25748)

hi774c

Bulls

Invested

$620.32

Value

$628.49

PnL

+$8.16

Record

46%

5627-6537 (12164)

takeormake

Bulls

Invested

$630.63

Value

$624.6

PnL

-$6.04

Record

52%

5560-5183 (10743)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

76ers

Invested

$3,327.07

Value

$559.7

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

50%

5215-5114 (10329)

Anon455

Bulls

Invested

$636.26

Value

$480.79

PnL

-$155.47

Record

54%

3943-3319 (7262)

RN1ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$596.64

Value

$455.03

PnL

-$141.61

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

Both legs:

76ers$472.3965.9¢-$217.88

Bulls$124.2540¢+$76.27

NM-P

Bulls

Invested

$190

Value

$192.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

58%

22563-16669 (39232)

GC-P

Bulls

Invested

$500

Value

$192.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

57%

22242-16601 (38843)

LightParadox

Bulls

Invested

$66.75

Value

$157.6

PnL

+$90.85

Record

47%

2124-2359 (4483)

Venusian

Bulls

Invested

$133.48

Value

$111.34

PnL

-$22.14

Record

47%

2177-2413 (4590)

38791873984189<$100

Bulls

Invested

$94.1

Value

$95.63

PnL

+$1.53

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

SnakeBallARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$86.94

Value

$88.13

PnL

+$1.19

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

Both legs:

Invested

$65.16

Value

$16.72

PnL

-$48.44

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

cigarettesCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$48

Value

$14

PnL

-$34

Record

50%

65490-65806 (131296)

sentrio<$100

Bulls

Invested

$13.54

Value

$5.21

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

14 of 18 top traders (78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBulls 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrBulls 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.