Spread: 76ers (-9.5)

6 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (33%) · Bulls at 52¢ · $45K held · ends Nov 8

76ers49¢Bulls51¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 33%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$45.2K

Combined PnL

$30.78

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 51.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

6 of 18 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers49%

Bulls52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls6 traders

Total Value$23.8K

Total Shares46,261

Combined PnL-$352.89

76ers12 traders

Total Value$19.9K

Total Shares41,094

Combined PnL+$383.67

Bulls — 33%76ers — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whale76ers 75% · 4

Diverging

ctr76ers 58% · 12

Diverging

Top 100076ers 63% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
drainedandpoor	Bullsavg 52.3¢	$34.7K	$17.9K	-$297.54	48% 690-741 (1431)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	76ersavg 47.9¢	$10.5K	$10.6K	+$142.27	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
MA MadridTimeCTR	76ersavg 47.2¢	$13.0K	$6.3K	+$171.04	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
nehcnehc	Bullsavg 52¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$45.44	61% 4520-2835 (7355)
LI LimousinCTR	76ersavg 47¢	$1.9K	$916.97	+$28.36	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
NM NM-PARB<$100	76ersavg 48¢	$707.38	$714.66	+$7.28	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 48¢	$528.88	$534.41	+$5.53
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 51¢	$178.5	$180.25	+$1.75
nigiri99CTR	76ersavg 47¢	$653.72	$674.15	+$20.43	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
KateBollinger	Bullsavg 51¢	$607.77	$613.73	+$5.96	68% 1882-902 (2784)
FL FlaznorpCTR	76ersavg 48¢	$19.37	$592.12	+$10.75	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
GC GC-PARB<$100	76ersavg 48¢	$541.57	$547.13	+$5.56	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 48¢	$408	$412.25	+$4.25
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 51¢	$133.57	$134.88	+$1.31
FE ferrariChampions2026	Bullsavg 52.7¢	$884.41	$455.47	-$10.73	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
VeryLucky888CTR	76ersavg 48.3¢	$724.94	$243.48	+$7.49	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	76ersavg 48¢	$192	$194	+$2	51% 2075-2021 (4096)
RL RLWG	Bullsavg 52.9¢	$354.99	$182.82	-$5.07	50% 8554-8723 (17277)
SN SnakeBallCTR	76ersavg 48.5¢	$160.96	$160.98	+$0.02	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Bullsavg 52.4¢	$132.97	$132.3	-$0.68	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 52.4¢	$75.74	$74.47	-$1.27
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 48¢	$57.24	$57.83	+$0.6
RN1CTR	76ersavg 48¢	$120	$121.25	+$1.25	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
38 38791873984189CTR	76ersavg 49¢	$232	$65.96	-$0.68	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	76ersavg 49¢	$14.95	$23.15	+$0.56	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	76ersavg 46¢	$7.41	$3.59	+$0.19	53% 14307-12631 (26938)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Bullsavg 53¢	$4.26	$2.19	-$0.06	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

drainedandpoor

Bulls

Invested

$34,735.55

Value

$17.9K

PnL

-$297.54

Record

48%

690-741 (1431)

HomeRunHazardCTR

76ers

Invested

$10,502.86

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$142.27

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

MadridTimeCTR

76ers

Invested

$12,974.7

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$171.04

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

nehcnehc

Bulls

Invested

$4,726.99

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$45.44

Record

61%

4520-2835 (7355)

LimousinCTR

76ers

Invested

$1,890.66

Value

$916.97

PnL

+$28.36

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

NM-PARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$707.38

Value

$714.66

PnL

+$7.28

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

Both legs:

76ers$528.8848¢+$5.53

Bulls$178.551¢+$1.75

nigiri99CTR

76ers

Invested

$653.72

Value

$674.15

PnL

+$20.43

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

KateBollinger

Bulls

Invested

$607.77

Value

$613.73

PnL

+$5.96

Record

68%

1882-902 (2784)

FlaznorpCTR

76ers

Invested

$19.37

Value

$592.12

PnL

+$10.75

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

GC-PARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$541.57

Value

$547.13

PnL

+$5.56

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Both legs:

76ers$40848¢+$4.25

Bulls$133.5751¢+$1.31

ferrariChampions2026

Bulls

Invested

$884.41

Value

$455.47

PnL

-$10.73

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

VeryLucky888CTR

76ers

Invested

$724.94

Value

$243.48

PnL

+$7.49

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

76ers

Invested

$192

Value

$194

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

RLWG

Bulls

Invested

$354.99

Value

$182.82

PnL

-$5.07

Record

50%

8554-8723 (17277)

SnakeBallCTR

76ers

Invested

$160.96

Value

$160.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

sentrioARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$132.97

Value

$132.3

PnL

-$0.68

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Both legs:

Bulls$75.7452.4¢-$1.27

76ers$57.2448¢+$0.6

RN1CTR

76ers

Invested

$120

Value

$121.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

38791873984189CTR

76ers

Invested

$232

Value

$65.96

PnL

-$0.68

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Pan9XCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$14.95

Value

$23.15

PnL

+$0.56

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$7.41

Value

$3.59

PnL

+$0.19

Record

53%

14307-12631 (26938)

ameisgoat11<$100

Bulls

Invested

$4.26

Value

$2.19

PnL

-$0.06

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

6 of 18 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whale76ers 75% · 4

Diverging

ctr76ers 58% · 12

Diverging

Top 100076ers 63% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.