Cardinals vs. Seahawks

13 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (72%) · Seahawks at 78¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 8

Cardinals23¢Seahawks77¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Seahawks

Consensus Traders

Seahawks 72%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.5K

Combined PnL

-$51.78

Smart Money Entry

82.6¢ → 77.5¢

-6% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

13 of 18 top traders (72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cardinals23%

Seahawks78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seahawks13 traders

Total Value$21.2K

Total Shares26,845

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Cardinals5 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares28,613

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Seahawks — 72%Cardinals — 28%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

73h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

72% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCardinals 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpSeahawks 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrSeahawks 69% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 71% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Seahawksavg 84¢	$9.9K	$9.2K	-$763.75	64% 1961-1092 (3053)
65 6512395314597884	Seahawksavg 79.7¢	$4.3K	$4.2K	-$118.08	51% 4769-4631 (9400)
IC ic4cream	Seahawksavg 83.4¢	$4.4K	$4.2K	-$268.08	56% 2771-2186 (4957)
EdZacharyCTR	Cardinalsavg 17¢	$2.6K	$3.5K	+$849.85	43% 117-152 (269)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Seahawksavg 77.4¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$33.18	54% 18232-15342 (33574)
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 77.4¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$12.17
└ Cardinals leg	Cardinalsavg 22¢	$924.66	$945.68	+$21.02
GA GaditimaCTR	Cardinalsavg 16.9¢	$2.1K	$2.7K	+$677.02	48% 7396-8099 (15495)
38 38791873984189	Seahawksavg 80.6¢	$2.3K	$1.2K	-$39.55	48% 61202-65997 (127199)
HE Herdonia	Seahawksavg 83.2¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$81.87	51% 3806-3729 (7535)
SN SnakeBall	Seahawksavg 83¢	$689.6	$656.9	-$36.74	51% 37678-36903 (74581)
NM NM-P	Seahawksavg 77¢	$397.6	$402.93	+$2.75	64% 9928-5530 (15458)
OD Oddstorm	Seahawksavg 77.5¢	$190.73	$191.88	+$1.23	48% 7398-7930 (15328)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Cardinalsavg 22.6¢	$171.38	$170.49	+$0.73	51% 25773-24474 (50247)
DV dv-pm	Seahawksavg 83¢	$180.11	$168.18	-$11.93	49% 3328-3529 (6857)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 17¢	$27.71	$36.68	+$8.97	50% 8300-8354 (16654)
VeryLucky888	Seahawksavg 82.9¢	$4.3K	$21.91	-$275.6	58% 46712-33673 (80385)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 16.4¢	$10.17	$14.3	+$4.13	54% 521-445 (966)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Seahawksavg 83¢	$9.76	$9.18	-$0.59	53% 12487-11218 (23705)
GC GC-P<$100	Seahawksavg 77¢	$7.29	$7.38	+$0.05	64% 9969-5598 (15567)
HI hithitfar<$100	Seahawksavg 81.5¢	$7.61	$7.29	-$0.32	59% 825-584 (1409)

darkumbreon88

Seahawks

Invested

$9,874.94

Value

$9.2K

PnL

-$763.75

Record

64%

1961-1092 (3053)

6512395314597884

Seahawks

Invested

$4,257.83

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$118.08

Record

51%

4769-4631 (9400)

ic4cream

Seahawks

Invested

$4,432.88

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$268.08

Record

56%

2771-2186 (4957)

EdZacharyCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$2,626.1

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$849.85

Record

43%

117-152 (269)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$2,808.38

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$33.18

Record

54%

18232-15342 (33574)

Both legs:

Seahawks$1,883.7277.4¢+$12.17

Cardinals$924.6622¢+$21.02

GaditimaCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$2,063.49

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$677.02

Record

48%

7396-8099 (15495)

38791873984189

Seahawks

Invested

$2,278.3

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$39.55

Record

48%

61202-65997 (127199)

Herdonia

Seahawks

Invested

$1,193.09

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$81.87

Record

51%

3806-3729 (7535)

SnakeBall

Seahawks

Invested

$689.6

Value

$656.9

PnL

-$36.74

Record

51%

37678-36903 (74581)

NM-P

Seahawks

Invested

$397.6

Value

$402.93

PnL

+$2.75

Record

64%

9928-5530 (15458)

Oddstorm

Seahawks

Invested

$190.73

Value

$191.88

PnL

+$1.23

Record

48%

7398-7930 (15328)

FlaznorpCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$171.38

Value

$170.49

PnL

+$0.73

Record

51%

25773-24474 (50247)

dv-pm

Seahawks

Invested

$180.11

Value

$168.18

PnL

-$11.93

Record

49%

3328-3529 (6857)

RLWGCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$27.71

Value

$36.68

PnL

+$8.97

Record

50%

8300-8354 (16654)

VeryLucky888

Seahawks

Invested

$4,274.59

Value

$21.91

PnL

-$275.6

Record

58%

46712-33673 (80385)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$10.17

Value

$14.3

PnL

+$4.13

Record

54%

521-445 (966)

BoomLaLa<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$9.76

Value

$9.18

PnL

-$0.59

Record

53%

12487-11218 (23705)

GC-P<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$7.29

Value

$7.38

PnL

+$0.05

Record

64%

9969-5598 (15567)

hithitfar<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$7.61

Value

$7.29

PnL

-$0.32

Record

59%

825-584 (1409)

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

13 of 18 top traders (72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

73h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

72% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCardinals 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpSeahawks 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrSeahawks 69% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 71% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Seahawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.