Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ravens, while the market favors Bills (73%). 9 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Bills (-6.5)

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Ravens (69%) · Ravens at 27¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 1

Bills73¢Ravens27¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ravens

Consensus Traders

Ravens 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.2K

Combined PnL

-$777.15

Smart Money Entry

53.7¢ → 27¢

-50% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidRavens at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ravens

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Bills 73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bills73%

Ravens27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bills4 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares8,969

Combined PnL-$456.37

Ravens9 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares15,832

Combined PnL-$320.78

Bills — 31%Ravens — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Ravens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRavens 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrRavens 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Ravens 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Billsavg 62¢	$6.9K	$6.6K	-$335.05	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 62¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	+$71.4
└ Ravens leg	Ravensavg 43.9¢	$2.6K	$2.2K	-$406.45
PR primm	Billsavg 61.1¢	$4.9K	$4.5K	-$401.28	46% 1131-1309 (2440)
HI hi774cCTR	Ravensavg 61¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$0	51% 4818-4541 (9359)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Ravensavg 62¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$40.68	62% 4201-2576 (6777)
TA takeormakeCTR	Ravensavg 45.5¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$236.64	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
RN1CTR	Ravensavg 36¢	$896.4	$846.6	-$49.8	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
AM AmericaFirst1	Billsavg 66¢	$655.01	$650.05	-$4.96	62% 2198-1345 (3543)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Billsavg 49¢	$245	$195	-$50	59% 30682-21402 (52084)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Ravensavg 60¢	$150	$152.5	+$2.5	53% 11583-10087 (21670)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Ravensavg 61.4¢	$65.73	$65.27	-$0.46	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Ravensavg 42.2¢	$72.66	$57.73	-$14.93	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100	Ravensavg 38¢	$25.46	$40.87	+$15.41	46% 367-427 (794)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Ravensavg 39.5¢	$17.55	$21.38	+$3.83	56% 14257-11059 (25316)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Billsavg 38¢	$9.5	$9.75	-$0.13	54% 17338-14559 (31897)

Anon455ARB<$100

Bills

Invested

$6,925.62

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$335.05

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

Both legs:

Bills$4,353.2662¢+$71.4

Ravens$2,572.3643.9¢-$406.45

primm

Bills

Invested

$4,939.01

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$401.28

Record

46%

1131-1309 (2440)

hi774cCTR

Ravens

Invested

$3,199.65

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

4818-4541 (9359)

SunlineTickerCTR

Ravens

Invested

$2,544.92

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$40.68

Record

62%

4201-2576 (6777)

takeormakeCTR

Ravens

Invested

$1,532.33

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$236.64

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

RN1CTR

Ravens

Invested

$896.4

Value

$846.6

PnL

-$49.8

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

AmericaFirst1

Bills

Invested

$655.01

Value

$650.05

PnL

-$4.96

Record

62%

2198-1345 (3543)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Bills

Invested

$245

Value

$195

PnL

-$50

Record

59%

30682-21402 (52084)

BoomLaLaCTR

Ravens

Invested

$150

Value

$152.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

11583-10087 (21670)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Ravens

Invested

$65.73

Value

$65.27

PnL

-$0.46

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Ravens

Invested

$72.66

Value

$57.73

PnL

-$14.93

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100

Ravens

Invested

$25.46

Value

$40.87

PnL

+$15.41

Record

46%

367-427 (794)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Ravens

Invested

$17.55

Value

$21.38

PnL

+$3.83

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Bills

Invested

$9.5

Value

$9.75

PnL

-$0.13

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

Research grade

AvoidRavens at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Ravens

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Bills 73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Ravens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRavens 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrRavens 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Ravens 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ravens wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.0%

27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$244.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

344.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.