Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Maple Leafs, while the market favors Avalanche (62%). 11 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Maple Leafs (69%) · Maple Leafs at 39¢ · $81K held · ends Nov 11

Avalanche62¢Maple Leafs38¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Maple Leafs

Consensus Traders

Maple Leafs 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$81.2K

Combined PnL

-$119.43

Smart Money Entry

39¢ → 38.5¢

-1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralMaple Leafs at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maple Leafs

11 of 16 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Avalanche 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Avalanche62%

Maple Leafs39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Maple Leafs11 traders

Total Value$68.0K

Total Shares174,470

Combined PnL-$33.36

Avalanche5 traders

Total Value$13.0K

Total Shares21,249

Combined PnL-$86.06

Maple Leafs — 69%Avalanche — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Maple Leafs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperMaple Leafs 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMaple Leafs 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedMaple Leafs 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Maple Leafs 57% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Maple Leafsavg 39.2¢	$33.7K	$33.6K	-$157.56	47% 500-558 (1058)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Maple Leafsavg 39¢	$20.6K	$20.6K	+$0	54% 1637-1401 (3038)
CH ChonkVisionCTR	Maple Leafsavg 38¢	$7.6K	$7.8K	+$200	54% 177-152 (329)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Avalancheavg 62¢	$7.4K	$7.3K	-$120	0% 1-582 (583)
Vladooos	Avalancheavg 62¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$50	— 10-6 (16)
VeryLucky888CTR	Maple Leafsavg 38.7¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$10	51% 251-244 (495)
RO royalestakeCTR	Maple Leafsavg 41¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$100	1% 2-178 (180)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Maple Leafsavg 38¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$35.39	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
CO cocococococo	Avalancheavg 59¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$44.44	0% 0-30 (30)
OM omnibus-076daa	Avalancheavg 59¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$36.13	38% 209-339 (548)
WE westing.v1ARB<$100	Avalancheavg 59¢	$191.35	$192.12	+$0.77	5% 3-62 (65)
└ Avalanche leg	Avalancheavg 59¢	$122.15	$126.29	+$4.14
└ Maple Leafs leg	Maple Leafsavg 41¢	$69.2	$65.82	-$3.38
38 38791873984189CTR	Maple Leafsavg 40¢	$169.6	$165.36	-$4.24	48% 917-990 (1907)
SE sentrioCTR	Maple Leafsavg 38¢	$155.43	$157.47	+$2.05	31% 174-392 (566)
nigiri99	Avalancheavg 59.5¢	$140.41	$143.78	+$3.37	52% 126-116 (242)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 38.9¢	$74.16	$67.13	-$0.28	53% 335-299 (634)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 39.9¢	$53.8	$52.65	-$1.15	68% 1592-742 (2334)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 38¢	$57.97	$18.86	+$2.43	49% 433-456 (889)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$33,712.13

Value

$33.6K

PnL

-$157.56

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$20,559.92

Value

$20.6K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

1637-1401 (3038)

ChonkVisionCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$7,600

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$200

Record

54%

177-152 (329)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Avalanche

Invested

$7,440

Value

$7.3K

PnL

-$120

Record

1-582 (583)

Vladooos

Avalanche

Invested

$3,100

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$50

Record

—

10-6 (16)

VeryLucky888CTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$2,319.98

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$10

Record

51%

251-244 (495)

royalestakeCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$2,050

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$100

Record

2-178 (180)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$1,345

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$35.39

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

cocococococo

Avalanche

Invested

$1,310.98

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$44.44

Record

0-30 (30)

omnibus-076daa

Avalanche

Invested

$1,065.73

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$36.13

Record

38%

209-339 (548)

westing.v1ARB<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$191.35

Value

$192.12

PnL

+$0.77

Record

3-62 (65)

Both legs:

Avalanche$122.1559¢+$4.14

Maple Leafs$69.241¢-$3.38

38791873984189CTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$169.6

Value

$165.36

PnL

-$4.24

Record

48%

917-990 (1907)

sentrioCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$155.43

Value

$157.47

PnL

+$2.05

Record

31%

174-392 (566)

nigiri99

Avalanche

Invested

$140.41

Value

$143.78

PnL

+$3.37

Record

52%

126-116 (242)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$74.16

Value

$67.13

PnL

-$0.28

Record

53%

335-299 (634)

RLWGCTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$53.8

Value

$52.65

PnL

-$1.15

Record

68%

1592-742 (2334)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$57.97

Value

$18.86

PnL

+$2.43

Record

49%

433-456 (889)

Research grade

NeutralMaple Leafs at 39%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Maple Leafs

11 of 16 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Avalanche 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Maple Leafs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperMaple Leafs 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMaple Leafs 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedMaple Leafs 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Maple Leafs 57% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maple Leafs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.