Flyers vs. Flames: O/U 5.5

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Over (65%) · Over at 85¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 9

Over85¢Under15¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 65%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$607.63

Smart Money Entry

77.9¢ → 85¢

+9% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 17 top traders (65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over85%

Under15%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over11 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares4,667

Combined PnL+$308.63

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,907

Combined PnL+$299

Over — 65%Under — 35%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Vladooos	Overavg 92.3¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$65.2	69% 143-63 (206)
TA taylorsversionCTR	Underavg 48¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$149.26	49% 146-151 (297)
nigiri99	Overavg 52¢	$535.6	$530.45	-$5.15	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 52¢	$525.2	$386.4	+$365.2	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
RN1CTR	Underavg 8¢	$83.6	$167.2	+$83.6	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 80.8¢	$131.36	$129.99	-$1.36	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$40	$80	+$40	47% 8644-9781 (18425)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 51.9¢	$28.52	$28.29	-$0.23	56% 8780-6967 (15747)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 9.3¢	$30.19	$26.29	+$19.76	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 52¢	$17.86	$20	+$11.78	57% 24691-18283 (42974)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 58¢	$19.79	$19.96	+$0.17	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$8	$16	+$8	50% 65492-65807 (131299)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Overavg 60.2¢	$6.02	$9.05	+$3.03	53% 14337-12646 (26983)
RL RLWG<$100	Overavg 52¢	$7.8	$7.73	-$0.08	50% 8560-8732 (17292)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Overavg 84¢	$6.72	$7.2	+$0.48	53% 3778-3377 (7155)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 56¢	$5.49	$3.87	-$1.62	46% 2028-2381 (4409)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.58	-$0.03	50% 27970-27422 (55392)

Vladooos

Over

Invested

$2,666.03

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$65.2

Record

69%

143-63 (206)

taylorsversionCTR

Under

Invested

$1,023.43

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$149.26

Record

49%

146-151 (297)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$535.6

Value

$530.45

PnL

-$5.15

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$525.2

Value

$386.4

PnL

+$365.2

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$83.6

Value

$167.2

PnL

+$83.6

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$131.36

Value

$129.99

PnL

-$1.36

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40

Value

$80

PnL

+$40

Record

47%

8644-9781 (18425)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$28.52

Value

$28.29

PnL

-$0.23

Record

56%

8780-6967 (15747)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$30.19

Value

$26.29

PnL

+$19.76

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$17.86

Value

$20

PnL

+$11.78

Record

57%

24691-18283 (42974)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$19.79

Value

$19.96

PnL

+$0.17

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$16

PnL

+$8

Record

50%

65492-65807 (131299)

BoomLaLa<$100

Over

Invested

$6.02

Value

$9.05

PnL

+$3.03

Record

53%

14337-12646 (26983)

RLWG<$100

Over

Invested

$7.8

Value

$7.73

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

8560-8732 (17292)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Over

Invested

$6.72

Value

$7.2

PnL

+$0.48

Record

53%

3778-3377 (7155)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.49

Value

$3.87

PnL

-$1.62

Record

46%

2028-2381 (4409)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.58

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 85%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 17 top traders (65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.