Will CU Técnica de Cajamarca vs. CD Los Chankas end in a draw?

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (47%) · Yes at 99¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 13

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 47%

Total Value

$19.1K

Combined PnL

$569.88

Smart Money Entry

93.3¢ → 99.1¢

+6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$19.1K

Total Shares19,372

Combined PnL+$975.05

No8 traders

Total Value$29.47

Total Shares2,679

Combined PnL-$405.17

Yes — 47%No — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

40h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (14 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 56% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 90.9¢	$8.8K	$9.6K	+$733.16	56% 92-72 (164)
Cypya	Yesavg 96¢	$9.2K	$9.4K	+$233.72	— 1-3 (4)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$16.94	$20.3	+$3.35	45% 273-328 (601)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$16.8	$19.94	+$3.14	39% 303-465 (768)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 2.4¢	$27.9	$12.87	-$15.03	30% 2617-6186 (8803)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$10.08	$11.7	+$1.63	39% 309-489 (798)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 3.6¢	$21.04	$6.35	-$14.7	81% 35-8 (43)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$6.37	$6.17	-$0.2	39% 624-957 (1581)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$5.28	$5.53	+$0.24	44% 286-362 (648)
MA makerview00CTR	Noavg 69¢	$345	$5.5	-$339.5	—
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 2¢	$4.34	$2.39	-$1.95	86% 36-6 (42)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 9.4¢	$14.22	$1.66	-$12.56	53% 5512-4919 (10431)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 70¢	$21	$0.33	-$20.67	51% 300-292 (592)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Noavg 2¢	$0.58	$0.32	-$0.26	53% 1602-1414 (3016)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 10.7¢	$0.56	$0.06	-$0.5	41% 299-433 (732)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$8,845.89

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$733.16

Record

56%

92-72 (164)

Cypya

Yes

Invested

$9,190.17

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$233.72

Record

—

1-3 (4)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.94

Value

$20.3

PnL

+$3.35

Record

45%

273-328 (601)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.8

Value

$19.94

PnL

+$3.14

Record

39%

303-465 (768)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$27.9

Value

$12.87

PnL

-$15.03

Record

30%

2617-6186 (8803)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.08

Value

$11.7

PnL

+$1.63

Record

39%

309-489 (798)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$21.04

Value

$6.35

PnL

-$14.7

Record

81%

35-8 (43)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.37

Value

$6.17

PnL

-$0.2

Record

39%

624-957 (1581)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.28

Value

$5.53

PnL

+$0.24

Record

44%

286-362 (648)

makerview00CTR

Invested

$345

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$339.5

Record

—

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$4.34

Value

$2.39

PnL

-$1.95

Record

86%

36-6 (42)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$14.22

Value

$1.66

PnL

-$12.56

Record

53%

5512-4919 (10431)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$21

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$20.67

Record

51%

300-292 (592)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Invested

$0.58

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$0.26

Record

53%

1602-1414 (3016)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.5

Record

41%

299-433 (732)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

40h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (14 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 56% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.