SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (54%) · Under at 81¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 1

Over20¢Under80¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.1K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

62.2¢ → 80.5¢

+29% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over20%

Under81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares8,383

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Over6 traders

Total Value$382.59

Total Shares1,237

Combined PnL-$61.85

Under — 54%Over — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 62.1¢	$4.2K	$5.6K	+$1.4K	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 66.3¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$61.41	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
└ Under leg	Underavg 66.3¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$370.54
└ Over leg	Overavg 32.8¢	$1.1K	$631.9	-$431.95
RN1	Underavg 59.4¢	$970.76	$1.0K	+$32.54	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
0xheavy888	Underavg 69¢	$293.43	$218.82	-$74.61	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 31¢	$100.05	$154.92	-$1.61	53% 5696-5031 (10727)
FO fooooolCTR	Overavg 29.6¢	$134.46	$96.26	-$38.2	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100	Underavg 67¢	$96.99	$81.07	-$15.92	54% 4943-4171 (9114)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 61.5¢	$46.84	$53.67	+$6.83	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 34.3¢	$77.95	$48.84	-$29.11	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 24.1¢	$41.28	$43.99	+$2.71	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$33	$37.5	+$4.5	58% 10670-7656 (18326)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 66.7¢	$179.36	$13.09	-$6	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 69¢	$6.9	$5.1	-$2.15	52% 7503-6793 (14296)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$1.22	$1.09	-$0.13	55% 3009-2439 (5448)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$4,203.87

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,794.65

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$61.41

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Both legs:

Under$1,730.866.3¢+$370.54

Over$1,063.8532.8¢-$431.95

RN1

Under

Invested

$970.76

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$32.54

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$293.43

Value

$218.82

PnL

-$74.61

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$100.05

Value

$154.92

PnL

-$1.61

Record

53%

5696-5031 (10727)

fooooolCTR

Over

Invested

$134.46

Value

$96.26

PnL

-$38.2

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100

Under

Invested

$96.99

Value

$81.07

PnL

-$15.92

Record

54%

4943-4171 (9114)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$46.84

Value

$53.67

PnL

+$6.83

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$77.95

Value

$48.84

PnL

-$29.11

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41.28

Value

$43.99

PnL

+$2.71

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33

Value

$37.5

PnL

+$4.5

Record

58%

10670-7656 (18326)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$179.36

Value

$13.09

PnL

-$6

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$6.9

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$2.15

Record

52%

7503-6793 (14296)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.22

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$0.13

Record

55%

3009-2439 (5448)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.