Exact Score: Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club 0 - 0 Al Fayha Saudi Club?

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (47%) · Yes at 94¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 5

Yes94¢No6¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 47%

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

-$317.8

Smart Money Entry

72.9¢ → 94.1¢

+29% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares9,373

Combined PnL+$1.6K

No8 traders

Total Value$531.28

Total Shares4,923

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Yes — 47%No — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (13 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DI dips.	Yesavg 96.4¢	$5.7K	$5.3K	-$359.42	47% 10355-11792 (22147)
WH whosay	Yesavg 36.7¢	$504.65	$1.2K	+$733.13	56% 1135-882 (2017)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Yesavg 57.4¢	$367.24	$573.99	+$206.75	83% 81-17 (98)
HR HRAImail-.-	Yesavg 22.3¢	$140.63	$564.8	+$424.17	— 13-3 (16)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70	Yesavg 3.6¢	$16.95	$535.2	+$518.25	75% 110-36 (146)
shineforever	Yesavg 48.3¢	$103.72	$191.49	+$89.49	58% 83-61 (144)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 78.6¢	$1.1K	$154.98	-$888.22	50% 36335-35819 (72154)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 45.4¢	$571.25	$135.79	-$436.53	50% 20734-20980 (41714)
2B9SCTR	Noavg 3.6¢	$42.82	$129.6	+$86.78	18% 4279-20045 (24324)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 78.8¢	$343.57	$47.09	-$296.48	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 96¢	$384	$43.2	-$340.8	58% 45427-32914 (78341)
LU lukibazdonauki754<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$11.14	$14.83	+$3.82	60% 911-595 (1506)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$49.36	$9.83	-$39.54	63% 712-413 (1125)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 9.1¢	$6.37	$7.56	+$1.19	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 78.8¢	$23.64	$3.24	-$20.4	51% 7648-7364 (15012)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$5,686.64

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$359.42

Record

47%

10355-11792 (22147)

whosay

Yes

Invested

$504.65

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$733.13

Record

56%

1135-882 (2017)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Yes

Invested

$367.24

Value

$573.99

PnL

+$206.75

Record

83%

81-17 (98)

HRAImail-.-

Yes

Invested

$140.63

Value

$564.8

PnL

+$424.17

Record

—

13-3 (16)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70

Yes

Invested

$16.95

Value

$535.2

PnL

+$518.25

Record

75%

110-36 (146)

shineforever

Yes

Invested

$103.72

Value

$191.49

PnL

+$89.49

Record

58%

83-61 (144)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$1,128.58

Value

$154.98

PnL

-$888.22

Record

50%

36335-35819 (72154)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$571.25

Value

$135.79

PnL

-$436.53

Record

50%

20734-20980 (41714)

2B9SCTR

Invested

$42.82

Value

$129.6

PnL

+$86.78

Record

18%

4279-20045 (24324)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$343.57

Value

$47.09

PnL

-$296.48

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$384

Value

$43.2

PnL

-$340.8

Record

58%

45427-32914 (78341)

lukibazdonauki754<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.14

Value

$14.83

PnL

+$3.82

Record

60%

911-595 (1506)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Invested

$49.36

Value

$9.83

PnL

-$39.54

Record

63%

712-413 (1125)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$6.37

Value

$7.56

PnL

+$1.19

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$23.64

Value

$3.24

PnL

-$20.4

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (13 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.3%

94.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.