Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
AC Sparta Praha vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score
Resolved Yes. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
15
No 42%
1 arb excluded
$465.85
$1.4K
Smart Money Signal
5 of 15 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO topdogbigboi | Yesavg 85.4¢ | $253.35 | $295.85 | +$42.5 | 47% 11734-13452 (25186) |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Yesavg 85¢ | $102.31 | $63.24 | -$39.07 | 51% 37678-36903 (74581) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 85¢ | $53.75 | $63.24 | +$9.49 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 48.3¢ | $48.56 | — | -$48.56 | |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Noavg 49.2¢ | $164.53 | — | -$164.53 | 52% 1386-1304 (2690) |
LI LimousinCTR | Noavg 49.2¢ | $145.16 | — | -$145.16 | 53% 1437-1278 (2715) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Yesavg 54.6¢ | $29.09 | $36.04 | +$6.95 | 53% 16808-14937 (31745) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 54.1¢ | $92.9 | — | -$92.9 | 53% 61382-53692 (115074) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Yesavg 60.3¢ | $18.52 | $29.07 | +$10.55 | 54% 9741-8133 (17874) |
DI dips.<$100 | Yesavg 87.6¢ | $13.13 | $15 | +$1.87 | 47% 10633-12155 (22788) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 54.8¢ | $83.37 | $10.65 | +$0.15 | 58% 46712-33673 (80385) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $5.3 | $10 | +$4.7 | 50% 25834-25541 (51375) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Yesavg 58.2¢ | $3.49 | $6 | -$0.2 | 46% 8594-10246 (18840) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $11.32 | — | -$11.32 | 48% 61202-65997 (127199) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $18.29 | — | -$7.5 | 55% 1362-1132 (2494) |
 LonnieHawkinss<$100 | Yesavg 49.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 2143-1909 (4052) |
PV pvc975 | Yesavg 99.9¢ | $147.26 | — | +$1.0K | 98% 17922-370 (18292) |
 Reformedx | Yesavg 60.2¢ | $1.2K | — | +$795.81 | 51% 870-839 (1709) |
Invested
$253.35
Value
$295.85
PnL
+$42.5
Record
47%
11734-13452 (25186)
Invested
$102.31
Value
$63.24
PnL
-$39.07
Record
51%
37678-36903 (74581)
Both legs:
Invested
$164.53
Value
—
PnL
-$164.53
Record
52%
1386-1304 (2690)
Invested
$145.16
Value
—
PnL
-$145.16
Record
53%
1437-1278 (2715)
Invested
$29.09
Value
$36.04
PnL
+$6.95
Record
53%
16808-14937 (31745)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$92.9
Value
—
PnL
-$92.9
Record
53%
61382-53692 (115074)
Invested
$18.52
Value
$29.07
PnL
+$10.55
Record
54%
9741-8133 (17874)
Invested
$13.13
Value
$15
PnL
+$1.87
Record
47%
10633-12155 (22788)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$83.37
Value
$10.65
PnL
+$0.15
Record
58%
46712-33673 (80385)
Invested
$5.3
Value
$10
PnL
+$4.7
Record
50%
25834-25541 (51375)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$3.49
Value
$6
PnL
-$0.2
Record
46%
8594-10246 (18840)
Invested
$11.32
Value
—
PnL
-$11.32
Record
48%
61202-65997 (127199)
Invested
$18.29
Value
—
PnL
-$7.5
Record
55%
1362-1132 (2494)
LonnieHawkinss<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
2143-1909 (4052)
Invested
$147.26
Value
—
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
98%
17922-370 (18292)
ReformedxInvested
$1,204.19
Value
—
PnL
+$795.81
Record
51%
870-839 (1709)