Will FK Austria Wien win on 2026-11-11?

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 88¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 11

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

-$174.28

Smart Money Entry

90.6¢ → 88¢

-3% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,708

Combined PnL-$206.67

Yes2 traders

Total Value$47.38

Total Shares330

Combined PnL+$32.39

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 82.1¢	$899.65	$901.65	+$1.99	50% 1408-1410 (2818)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 93.7¢	$841.44	$763.66	-$77.78	29% 2510-6165 (8675)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 92.6¢	$712.08	$676.4	-$35.67	53% 5376-4855 (10231)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 91.6¢	$438.09	$414.94	-$21.75	43% 224-303 (527)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 94.1¢	$441.38	$414.9	-$26.48	36% 252-443 (695)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 90.1¢	$315.2	$309.71	-$5.49	36% 259-467 (726)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225	Noavg 94.9¢	$310.14	$290.96	-$19.18	38% 574-933 (1507)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 93.6¢	$196.58	$185.89	-$10.69	41% 240-341 (581)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 92.3¢	$196.4	$175.67	-$12.53	38% 251-413 (664)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 83¢	$62.67	$64.2	+$1.53	31% 170-383 (553)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$12	$42	+$30	15% 15-83 (98)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 90.5¢	$19.9	$19.58	-$0.32	53% 1595-1413 (3008)
WH whosay<$100	Noavg 89¢	$6.73	$6.43	-$0.3	— 13-6 (19)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.6¢	$77.3	$5.38	+$2.39	49% 231-239 (470)

Flaznorp

Invested

$899.65

Value

$901.65

PnL

+$1.99

Record

50%

1408-1410 (2818)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$841.44

Value

$763.66

PnL

-$77.78

Record

29%

2510-6165 (8675)

cigarettes

Invested

$712.08

Value

$676.4

PnL

-$35.67

Record

53%

5376-4855 (10231)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$438.09

Value

$414.94

PnL

-$21.75

Record

43%

224-303 (527)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$441.38

Value

$414.9

PnL

-$26.48

Record

36%

252-443 (695)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$315.2

Value

$309.71

PnL

-$5.49

Record

36%

259-467 (726)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Invested

$310.14

Value

$290.96

PnL

-$19.18

Record

38%

574-933 (1507)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$196.58

Value

$185.89

PnL

-$10.69

Record

41%

240-341 (581)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$196.4

Value

$175.67

PnL

-$12.53

Record

38%

251-413 (664)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$62.67

Value

$64.2

PnL

+$1.53

Record

31%

170-383 (553)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12

Value

$42

PnL

+$30

Record

15%

15-83 (98)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$19.9

Value

$19.58

PnL

-$0.32

Record

53%

1595-1413 (3008)

whosay<$100

Invested

$6.73

Value

$6.43

PnL

-$0.3

Record

—

13-6 (19)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.3

Value

$5.38

PnL

+$2.39

Record

49%

231-239 (470)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.