Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 77¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 1

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$181.69

Smart Money Entry

55.1¢ → 76.5¢

+39% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,615

Combined PnL+$201.16

Yes2 traders

Total Value$7.11

Total Shares31

Combined PnL-$19.47

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

573h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 60.8¢	$1.8K	$925.98	+$34.44	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
balthazar	Noavg 31.9¢	$60.2	$139.86	+$79.66	53% 29396-26298 (55694)
2B9SARB<$100	Yesavg 70.3¢	$219.83	$131.39	-$88.44	18% 4304-20139 (24443)
└ No leg	Noavg 49.6¢	$51.03	$76.19	+$25.16
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 70.3¢	$168.8	$55.2	-$113.6
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Noavg 53¢	$93.98	$131.22	+$37.24	48% 1316-1405 (2721)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 43¢	$43	$74	+$31	42% 7033-9821 (16854)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 68.5¢	$42.6	$38.8	-$2.49	15% 498-2922 (3420)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 60.4¢	$18.8	$23.04	+$4.24	46% 10331-12028 (22359)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 42.9¢	$12.68	$21.87	+$9.18	43% 3155-4197 (7352)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 64.7¢	$13.35	$15.27	+$1.91	49% 8853-9361 (18214)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 46.5¢	$5.01	$7.98	+$2.97	58% 19680-14468 (34148)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 14¢	$0.7	$3.7	+$3	32% 2587-5457 (8044)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 86¢	$13.68	$3.66	-$10.02	36% 2020-3628 (5648)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 86¢	$12.9	$3.45	-$9.45	38% 3083-4954 (8037)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$1,769.55

Value

$925.98

PnL

+$34.44

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

balthazar

Invested

$60.2

Value

$139.86

PnL

+$79.66

Record

53%

29396-26298 (55694)

2B9SARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$219.83

Value

$131.39

PnL

-$88.44

Record

18%

4304-20139 (24443)

Both legs:

No$51.0349.6¢+$25.16

Yes$168.870.3¢-$113.6

SnapElectionAvoider

Invested

$93.98

Value

$131.22

PnL

+$37.24

Record

48%

1316-1405 (2721)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$43

Value

$74

PnL

+$31

Record

42%

7033-9821 (16854)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$42.6

Value

$38.8

PnL

-$2.49

Record

15%

498-2922 (3420)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$18.8

Value

$23.04

PnL

+$4.24

Record

46%

10331-12028 (22359)

merod<$100

Invested

$12.68

Value

$21.87

PnL

+$9.18

Record

43%

3155-4197 (7352)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$13.35

Value

$15.27

PnL

+$1.91

Record

49%

8853-9361 (18214)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$5.01

Value

$7.98

PnL

+$2.97

Record

58%

19680-14468 (34148)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$0.7

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$3

Record

32%

2587-5457 (8044)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.68

Value

$3.66

PnL

-$10.02

Record

36%

2020-3628 (5648)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.9

Value

$3.45

PnL

-$9.45

Record

38%

3083-4954 (8037)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

573h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.2%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.