Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 14 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

14 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.8¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$2.6K

Smart Money Entry

0.6¢ → 0.8¢

+22% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares338,586

Combined PnL+$2.6K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

208 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$3.1K	$1.6K	+$2.5K	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$636.15	$686.72	+$26.7	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
PL plumbisCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$140.7	$160	+$9.32	57% 51-39 (90)
FO FolletinCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$108.06	$109.21	-$5.64	69% 423-188 (611)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$46.78	$44.98	-$1.87	47% 83-94 (177)
FA FancyiCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$40	$40	-$2.5	68% 56-26 (82)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$1.67	$26.65	+$24.98	26% 351-985 (1336)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$28.3	$19.05	-$8.46	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.61	$17.6	+$5.41	68% 2074-957 (3031)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$1	$16	+$15	41% 648-925 (1573)
QualitativeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$5.91	$12	+$5.34	58% 1153-825 (1978)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$5.42	$6.67	+$1.25	57% 1113-837 (1950)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$1.1K	$0.28	+$0.26	76% 8934-2819 (11753)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.07	$0.08	+$0.01	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,140.31

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$636.15

Value

$686.72

PnL

+$26.7

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

plumbisCTR

Yes

Invested

$140.7

Value

$160

PnL

+$9.32

Record

57%

51-39 (90)

FolletinCTR

Yes

Invested

$108.06

Value

$109.21

PnL

-$5.64

Record

69%

423-188 (611)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.78

Value

$44.98

PnL

-$1.87

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

FancyiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40

Value

$40

PnL

-$2.5

Record

68%

56-26 (82)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.67

Value

$26.65

PnL

+$24.98

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.3

Value

$19.05

PnL

-$8.46

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.61

Value

$17.6

PnL

+$5.41

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$16

PnL

+$15

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

QualitativeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

$12

PnL

+$5.34

Record

58%

1153-825 (1978)

cambridgeisaacCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.42

Value

$6.67

PnL

+$1.25

Record

57%

1113-837 (1950)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,118.49

Value

$0.28

PnL

+$0.26

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.08

PnL

+$0.01

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

208 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.8%

0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5398.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

5498.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.