Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?

3 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (21%) · No at 100¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 21%

Total Value

$12.1K

Combined PnL

$4.8K

Smart Money Entry

43.6¢ → 100¢

+129% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 14 top traders (21%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$12.1K

Total Shares12,083

Combined PnL+$6.8K

Yes11 traders

Total Value$27.14

Total Shares54,271

Combined PnL$-2.0K

No — 21%Yes — 79%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

21% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (6 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Noavg 51.9¢	$4.9K	$9.4K	+$4.5K	55% 7314-5881 (13195)
Gohst	Noavg 15¢	$400	$2.7K	+$2.3K	49% 738-770 (1508)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 22¢	$11	$49.98	+$38.98	18% 3832-17370 (21202)
ChungvicularCTR	Yesavg 7.1¢	$1.3K	$8.86	$-1.2K	46% 49-57 (106)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Yesavg 2.1¢	$336.35	$8	-$328.35	35% 35-64 (99)
twinnaCTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$147.12	$2.62	-$144.4	50% 92-93 (185)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$90	$1.96	-$88.38	47% 83-94 (177)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Yes	$1.79	$1.79	-$77.91	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.96	$1.79	-$81.12	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
FL flawfenceCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$61.07	$1.44	-$59.62	46% 271-319 (590)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$10.86	$0.41	-$10.46	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$7.5	$0.17	-$7.33	45% 1905-2348 (4253)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$0	$0.07	+$0.07	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$1.15	$0.03	-$1.12	57% 3068-2356 (5424)

0xheavy888

Invested

$4,862.61

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

55%

7314-5881 (13195)

Gohst

Invested

$400

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

49%

738-770 (1508)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$11

Value

$49.98

PnL

+$38.98

Record

18%

3832-17370 (21202)

ChungvicularCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,250.19

Value

$8.86

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

dromedaryyCTR

Yes

Invested

$336.35

Value

PnL

-$328.35

Record

35%

35-64 (99)

twinnaCTR

Yes

Invested

$147.12

Value

$2.62

PnL

-$144.4

Record

50%

92-93 (185)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$90

Value

$1.96

PnL

-$88.38

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

HourglassCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.79

Value

$1.79

PnL

-$77.91

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.96

Value

$1.79

PnL

-$81.12

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

flawfenceCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.07

Value

$1.44

PnL

-$59.62

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.86

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$10.46

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.5

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$7.33

Record

45%

1905-2348 (4253)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$0.07

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.12

Record

57%

3068-2356 (5424)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 14 top traders (21%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

21% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (6 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.