Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 14 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

14 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

0.7¢ → 0.5¢

-17% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares920,419

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

214 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$3.6K	$3.4K	-$612.3	67% 751-378 (1129)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$888.89	$611.11	-$277.78	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$672.57	$599.64	-$72.94	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$211.8	$211.8	-$88.69	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR	Yesavg 1.5¢	$185.98	$68.22	-$117.48	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
debasedCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$111.49	$50.95	-$60.54	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$41.86	$38.37	-$3.49	60% 1348-884 (2232)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yes	$38.24	$38.24	-$16.07	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$45.31	$31.95	-$13.43	47% 83-94 (177)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$210.1	$17.01	-$23.94	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.97	$6.11	+$6.11	26% 351-985 (1336)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0	$2.13	+$2.13	41% 648-925 (1573)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.91	$1.19	-$0.13	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$1.1K	$0.19	+$0.19	76% 8934-2819 (11753)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR

Yes

Invested

$3,563.38

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$612.3

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$888.89

Value

$611.11

PnL

-$277.78

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$672.57

Value

$599.64

PnL

-$72.94

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$211.8

Value

$211.8

PnL

-$88.69

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR

Yes

Invested

$185.98

Value

$68.22

PnL

-$117.48

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

debasedCTR

Yes

Invested

$111.49

Value

$50.95

PnL

-$60.54

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.86

Value

$38.37

PnL

-$3.49

Record

60%

1348-884 (2232)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.24

Value

$38.24

PnL

-$16.07

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.31

Value

$31.95

PnL

-$13.43

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$210.1

Value

$17.01

PnL

-$23.94

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.97

Value

$6.11

PnL

+$6.11

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.13

PnL

+$2.13

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$1.19

PnL

-$0.13

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,118.44

Value

$0.19

PnL

+$0.19

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

214 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6107.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

6207.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.