Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 15 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals?

15 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $170 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$170.24

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

0.8¢ → 0.3¢

-69% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 15 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes15 traders

Total Value$170.24

Total Shares68,097

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

866h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$191.49	$118.94	-$72.55	22% 9-32 (41)
HOG993CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$71.43	$12.5	-$58.93	— 0-2 (2)
BaddieCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$71.03	$12.43	-$58.6	0% 0-46 (46)
Gucky-45CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$42.86	$7.5	-$35.36	33% 171-343 (514)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$74.13	$7.04	-$67.09	— 1-11 (12)
E4 e46m3CTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$4.7K	$5.95	-$884.77	39% 180-277 (457)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$14.29	$2.5	-$11.79	— 0-3 (3)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$10	$1.75	-$8.25	— 1-3 (4)
CosmicCedarCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.74	$0.62	-$0.12	0% 0-48 (48)
11 11122CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.4	$0.5	+$0.1	0% 0-141 (141)
0X 0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50ACTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$2.78	$0.25	-$2.53	0% 0-93 (93)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$1.36	$0.12	-$1.24	— 2-0 (2)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$35.2	$0.09	-$0.89	— 8-2 (10)
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$0.43	$0.04	-$0.39	5% 1-20 (21)
ME MenacingTurtleCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$0.14	$0.02	-$0.13	—

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$191.49

Value

$118.94

PnL

-$72.55

Record

22%

9-32 (41)

HOG993CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.43

Value

$12.5

PnL

-$58.93

Record

—

0-2 (2)

BaddieCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.03

Value

$12.43

PnL

-$58.6

Record

0-46 (46)

Gucky-45CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.86

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$35.36

Record

33%

171-343 (514)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.13

Value

$7.04

PnL

-$67.09

Record

—

1-11 (12)

e46m3CTR

Yes

Invested

$4,673.07

Value

$5.95

PnL

-$884.77

Record

39%

180-277 (457)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.29

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$11.79

Record

—

0-3 (3)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$8.25

Record

—

1-3 (4)

CosmicCedarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.74

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$0.12

Record

0-48 (48)

11122CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

0-141 (141)

0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50ACTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.78

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$2.53

Record

0-93 (93)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.36

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$1.24

Record

—

2-0 (2)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.2

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.89

Record

—

8-2 (10)

0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.39

Record

1-20 (21)

MenacingTurtleCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.13

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 15 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

866h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7523.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

7623.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.