Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 14 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

14 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

0.8¢ → 0.4¢

-56% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares280,733

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

193 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 10

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TR tradexplorerCTR	Yesavg 1.3¢	$1.3K	$365.08	-$867.07	60% 291-194 (485)
PL plumbisCTR	Yesavg 0.3¢	$150	$200	+$25.03	57% 51-39 (90)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$196.85	$200	-$21.85	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
Q9 Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$106.47	$95.99	-$10.49	41% 166-240 (406)
EA EatprayloveCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$164.86	$87.87	-$77	57% 766-585 (1351)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$174.72	$55.29	-$119.43	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
DonkovCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$41	$27.76	-$13.24	71% 968-396 (1364)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$38.31	$27.35	-$27.69	41% 648-925 (1573)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$39.57	$24.68	-$14.89	67% 751-378 (1129)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$26.65	$16.17	-$13.05	68% 2074-957 (3031)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$34.7	$15.57	-$19.18	47% 83-94 (177)
RD rdbaCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$13.9	$2.78	-$11.47	60% 131-88 (219)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$1.89	$1.89	-$2.03	7% 14-187 (201)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.61	$0.29	-$0.32	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

tradexplorerCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,300

Value

$365.08

PnL

-$867.07

Record

60%

291-194 (485)

plumbisCTR

Yes

Invested

$150

Value

$200

PnL

+$25.03

Record

57%

51-39 (90)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$196.85

Value

$200

PnL

-$21.85

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR

Yes

Invested

$106.47

Value

$95.99

PnL

-$10.49

Record

41%

166-240 (406)

EatprayloveCTR

Yes

Invested

$164.86

Value

$87.87

PnL

-$77

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$174.72

Value

$55.29

PnL

-$119.43

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

DonkovCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41

Value

$27.76

PnL

-$13.24

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.31

Value

$27.35

PnL

-$27.69

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.57

Value

$24.68

PnL

-$14.89

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.65

Value

$16.17

PnL

-$13.05

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.7

Value

$15.57

PnL

-$19.18

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

rdbaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.9

Value

$2.78

PnL

-$11.47

Record

60%

131-88 (219)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.89

Value

$1.89

PnL

-$2.03

Record

14-187 (201)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$0.32

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

193 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 10

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7026.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

7126.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.