Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 36%

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

-$424.96

Smart Money Entry

79.6¢ → 97.5¢

+23% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares3,674

Combined PnL+$658.64

Yes9 traders

Total Value$671.3

Total Shares29,012

Combined PnL$-1.1K

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME merod	Noavg 94.3¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$57.88	51% 2516-2391 (4907)
gopfan2	Noavg 63.1¢	$1.0K	$1.6K	+$570.47	51% 901-875 (1776)
AN anoin123CTR	Yesavg 6.3¢	$827.94	$323.85	-$504.09	47% 474-534 (1008)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 9¢	$661.58	$177.45	-$484.13	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
Valen9CTR	Yesavg 3.5¢	$175	$110	-$52.5	60% 406-274 (680)
randomWalkingShrimp<$100	Noavg 94¢	$94	$97.55	+$3.55	77% 1204-366 (1570)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 76.2¢	$68.21	$87.35	+$19.14	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
EA Eatpraylove<$100	Noavg 76¢	$26.79	$34.39	+$7.6	57% 766-585 (1351)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$31.08	$28.12	-$1.67	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$19.9	$21.01	-$1.98	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
nicoco89CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.7¢	$20.13	$3.49	-$16.25	65% 1075-583 (1658)
smellyEllieCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$6.43	$3.3	-$3.2	50% 969-986 (1955)
IM immanuelcanCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.2¢	$10.32	$2.85	-$15.49	53% 906-789 (1695)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$5.67	$1.25	-$4.28	42% 1368-1924 (3292)

merod

Invested

$1,688.76

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$57.88

Record

51%

2516-2391 (4907)

gopfan2

Invested

$1,047.41

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$570.47

Record

51%

901-875 (1776)

anoin123CTR

Yes

Invested

$827.94

Value

$323.85

PnL

-$504.09

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$661.58

Value

$177.45

PnL

-$484.13

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

Valen9CTR

Yes

Invested

$175

Value

$110

PnL

-$52.5

Record

60%

406-274 (680)

randomWalkingShrimp<$100

Invested

$94

Value

$97.55

PnL

+$3.55

Record

77%

1204-366 (1570)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$68.21

Value

$87.35

PnL

+$19.14

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Eatpraylove<$100

Invested

$26.79

Value

$34.39

PnL

+$7.6

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.08

Value

$28.12

PnL

-$1.67

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.9

Value

$21.01

PnL

-$1.98

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

nicoco89CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.13

Value

$3.49

PnL

-$16.25

Record

65%

1075-583 (1658)

smellyEllieCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.43

Value

$3.3

PnL

-$3.2

Record

50%

969-986 (1955)

immanuelcanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.32

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$15.49

Record

53%

906-789 (1695)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.67

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$4.28

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.