Luanda: Anna Blinkova vs Sofya Lansere

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Anna Blinkova (75%) · Anna Blinkova at 75¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 15

Anna Blinkova75¢Sofya Lansere25¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Anna Blinkova

Consensus Traders

Anna Blinkova 75%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.8K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

62.5¢ → 74.5¢

+19% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralAnna Blinkova at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Anna Blinkova

9 of 12 top traders (75%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Anna Blinkova75%

Sofya Lansere26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Anna Blinkova9 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares17,070

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Sofya Lansere3 traders

Total Value$146.72

Total Shares448

Combined PnL+$358.63

Anna Blinkova — 75%Sofya Lansere — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Anna Blinkovaavg 65.6¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$183.58	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
tradecraft	Anna Blinkovaavg 62.9¢	$2.6K	$3.1K	+$513.05	51% 6523-6284 (12807)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Anna Blinkovaavg 63.7¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$90.59	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
VE Venusian	Anna Blinkovaavg 55.8¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$198.73	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
65 6512395314597884	Anna Blinkovaavg 60.9¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$343.06	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Anna Blinkovaavg 55.5¢	$697.29	$1.2K	+$528.17	54% 6333-5398 (11731)
└ Anna Blinkova leg	Anna Blinkovaavg 55.5¢	$587.38	$767.31	+$179.93
└ Sofya Lansere leg	Sofya Lansereavg 6.6¢	$109.91	$458.15	+$348.24
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Anna Blinkovaavg 66.5¢	$1.7K	$1.1K	-$33.92	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Anna Blinkova leg	Anna Blinkovaavg 66.5¢	$735.93	$835.5	+$29.09
└ Sofya Lansere leg	Sofya Lansereavg 31.5¢	$282.56	$219.55	-$63.01
TH thestingsnake	Anna Blinkovaavg 65.7¢	$1.1K	$807.2	+$42.45	60% 4530-3029 (7559)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Sofya Lansereavg 53.3¢	$720.35	$564.7	-$155.65	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
└ Anna Blinkova leg	Anna Blinkovaavg 63.6¢	$299.31	$331.61	+$32.3
└ Sofya Lansere leg	Sofya Lansereavg 53.3¢	$421.04	$233.09	-$187.95
MA MadridTime	Anna Blinkovaavg 57.6¢	$481.78	$480.67	-$1.11	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Anna Blinkovaavg 76.1¢	$702.36	$337.96	-$30.55	53% 828-732 (1560)
└ Anna Blinkova leg	Anna Blinkovaavg 76.1¢	$260.3	$258.41	-$60.99
└ Sofya Lansere leg	Sofya Lansereavg 32.9¢	$106.71	$79.55	+$30.44
LI LimousinARB<$100	Anna Blinkovaavg 58.1¢	$348.72	$315.06	-$33.66	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
└ Anna Blinkova leg	Anna Blinkovaavg 58.1¢	$254.24	$212.06	-$42.17
└ Sofya Lansere leg	Sofya Lansereavg 47.2¢	$94.48	$103	+$8.52
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Anna Blinkovaavg 54.2¢	$234	$244.75	+$10.75	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
└ Anna Blinkova leg	Anna Blinkovaavg 54.2¢	$133.3	$188.02	+$54.72
└ Sofya Lansere leg	Sofya Lansereavg 41.7¢	$100.7	$56.73	-$43.97
KA Kaczka	Anna Blinkovaavg 74¢	$146.96	$147.98	+$1.02	51% 500-489 (989)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Anna Blinkovaavg 63.6¢	$121	$109.8	-$11.2	55% 9938-8254 (18192)
└ Anna Blinkova leg	Anna Blinkovaavg 63.6¢	$63.6	$75.5	+$11.9
└ Sofya Lansere leg	Sofya Lansereavg 41¢	$57.4	$34.3	-$23.1
RN1CTR	Sofya Lansereavg 34.3¢	$103.69	$74.17	-$29.52	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Sofya Lansereavg 37.2¢	$47.3	$52.99	+$5.7	64% 5377-2997 (8374)
FL flatbarrelCTR	Sofya Lansereavg 39¢	$1.0K	$19.56	+$382.45	58% 2812-2017 (4829)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Anna Blinkovaavg 73¢	$3.65	$3.73	+$0.08	52% 9022-8174 (17196)

Flaznorp

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$3,264.64

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$183.58

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

tradecraft

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$2,571.44

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$513.05

Record

51%

6523-6284 (12807)

ferrariChampions2026

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$2,019.7

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$90.59

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

Venusian

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$1,683.7

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$198.73

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

6512395314597884

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$1,477.2

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$343.06

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

EulhunterARB<$100

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$697.29

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$528.17

Record

54%

6333-5398 (11731)

Both legs:

Anna Blinkova$587.3855.5¢+$179.93

Sofya Lansere$109.916.6¢+$348.24

38791873984189ARB<$100

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$1,685.77

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$33.92

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Anna Blinkova$735.9366.5¢+$29.09

Sofya Lansere$282.5631.5¢-$63.01

thestingsnake

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$1,078.32

Value

$807.2

PnL

+$42.45

Record

60%

4530-3029 (7559)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Sofya Lansere

Invested

$720.35

Value

$564.7

PnL

-$155.65

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Both legs:

Anna Blinkova$299.3163.6¢+$32.3

Sofya Lansere$421.0453.3¢-$187.95

MadridTime

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$481.78

Value

$480.67

PnL

-$1.11

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$702.36

Value

$337.96

PnL

-$30.55

Record

53%

828-732 (1560)

Both legs:

Anna Blinkova$260.376.1¢-$60.99

Sofya Lansere$106.7132.9¢+$30.44

LimousinARB<$100

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$348.72

Value

$315.06

PnL

-$33.66

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Both legs:

Anna Blinkova$254.2458.1¢-$42.17

Sofya Lansere$94.4847.2¢+$8.52

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$234

Value

$244.75

PnL

+$10.75

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

Both legs:

Anna Blinkova$133.354.2¢+$54.72

Sofya Lansere$100.741.7¢-$43.97

Kaczka

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$146.96

Value

$147.98

PnL

+$1.02

Record

51%

500-489 (989)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$121

Value

$109.8

PnL

-$11.2

Record

55%

9938-8254 (18192)

Both legs:

Anna Blinkova$63.663.6¢+$11.9

Sofya Lansere$57.441¢-$23.1

RN1CTR

Sofya Lansere

Invested

$103.69

Value

$74.17

PnL

-$29.52

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Sofya Lansere

Invested

$47.3

Value

$52.99

PnL

+$5.7

Record

64%

5377-2997 (8374)

flatbarrelCTR

Sofya Lansere

Invested

$1,019.41

Value

$19.56

PnL

+$382.45

Record

58%

2812-2017 (4829)

ameisgoat11<$100

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$3.65

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

Research grade

NeutralAnna Blinkova at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Anna Blinkova

9 of 12 top traders (75%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Anna Blinkova wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.