Luanda: Sofya Lansere vs Noma Noha Akugue

13 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Sofya Lansere (65%) · Sofya Lansere at 100¢ · $65K held · ends Nov 14

Sofya Lansere>99¢Noma Noha Akugue<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sofya Lansere

Consensus Traders

Sofya Lansere 65%

Total Value

$65.3K

Combined PnL

$-23.9K

Smart Money Entry

78.2¢ → 100¢

+28% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralSofya Lansere at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sofya Lansere

13 of 20 top traders (65%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Sofya Lansere100%

Noma Noha Akugue0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sofya Lansere13 traders

Total Value$57.5K

Total Shares57,524

Combined PnL+$11.1K

Noma Noha Akugue7 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares103,169

Combined PnL$-35.0K

Sofya Lansere — 65%Noma Noha Akugue — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Sofya Lansereavg 78.5¢	$18.7K	$23.8K	+$5.1K	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
LI Limousin	Sofya Lansereavg 87¢	$14.0K	$16.1K	+$2.1K	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
MA MadridTime	Sofya Lansereavg 75.9¢	$6.5K	$7.9K	+$1.4K	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
LI LightParadox	Sofya Lansereavg 58.1¢	$3.4K	$5.9K	+$2.5K	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Noma Noha Akugueavg 44.5¢	$10.3K	$4.1K	$-5.9K	51% 5012-4882 (9894)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Noma Noha Akugueavg 39¢	$20.0K	$1.7K	$-18.4K	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
TH thestingsnake	Sofya Lansereavg 80.1¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$274.62	60% 4506-3007 (7513)
VE VenusianCTR	Noma Noha Akugueavg 21.3¢	$2.4K	$987.08	$-1.4K	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
38 38791873984189	Sofya Lansereavg 85.1¢	$1.8K	$780.11	-$598.88	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
EU Eulhunter	Sofya Lansereavg 56.1¢	$353.96	$630.83	+$276.87	54% 6325-5389 (11714)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noma Noha Akugueavg 44.2¢	$2.4K	$588.73	$-1.8K	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
1L 1lovejumpCTR	Noma Noha Akugueavg 37.5¢	$1.1K	$387.37	-$76.54	53% 827-732 (1559)
GA Gaditima	Sofya Lansereavg 86¢	$329.91	$383.43	+$53.52	47% 7500-8312 (15812)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Sofya Lansereavg 62.5¢	$363.71	$378.8	+$15.09	52% 14650-13314 (27964)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0	Sofya Lansereavg 52.6¢	$109.85	$110.11	+$0.26	64% 5376-2995 (8371)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Noma Noha Akugueavg 67¢	$99.18	$97.7	-$1.48	56% 8223-6528 (14751)
machinelearned<$100	Sofya Lansereavg 74.7¢	$59.2	$60	+$0.8	55% 9930-8242 (18172)
OJ ojg<$100	Sofya Lansereavg 75.8¢	$40.17	$42.67	+$2.49	43% 825-1072 (1897)
KK KkunnCTR	Noma Noha Akugueavg 26.6¢	$7.5K	$14.08	$-7.5K	42% 253-345 (598)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Sofya Lansereavg 92¢	$4.6	$5	+$0.4	57% 19424-14373 (33797)

RN1

Sofya Lansere

Invested

$18,691.98

Value

$23.8K

PnL

+$5.1K

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

Limousin

Sofya Lansere

Invested

$14,002.75

Value

$16.1K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

MadridTime

Sofya Lansere

Invested

$6,526.83

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

LightParadox

Sofya Lansere

Invested

$3,414.27

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

6512395314597884CTR

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$10,262.99

Value

$4.1K

PnL

$-5.9K

Record

51%

5012-4882 (9894)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$20,043.57

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-18.4K

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

thestingsnake

Sofya Lansere

Invested

$1,115.46

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$274.62

Record

60%

4506-3007 (7513)

VenusianCTR

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$2,371.07

Value

$987.08

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

38791873984189

Sofya Lansere

Invested

$1,835.93

Value

$780.11

PnL

-$598.88

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

Eulhunter

Sofya Lansere

Invested

$353.96

Value

$630.83

PnL

+$276.87

Record

54%

6325-5389 (11714)

FlaznorpCTR

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$2,400.5

Value

$588.73

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

1lovejumpCTR

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$1,073.08

Value

$387.37

PnL

-$76.54

Record

53%

827-732 (1559)

Gaditima

Sofya Lansere

Invested

$329.91

Value

$383.43

PnL

+$53.52

Record

47%

7500-8312 (15812)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Sofya Lansere

Invested

$363.71

Value

$378.8

PnL

+$15.09

Record

52%

14650-13314 (27964)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0

Sofya Lansere

Invested

$109.85

Value

$110.11

PnL

+$0.26

Record

64%

5376-2995 (8371)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$99.18

Value

$97.7

PnL

-$1.48

Record

56%

8223-6528 (14751)

machinelearned<$100

Sofya Lansere

Invested

$59.2

Value

$60

PnL

+$0.8

Record

55%

9930-8242 (18172)

ojg<$100

Sofya Lansere

Invested

$40.17

Value

$42.67

PnL

+$2.49

Record

43%

825-1072 (1897)

KkunnCTR

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$7,496.39

Value

$14.08

PnL

$-7.5K

Record

42%

253-345 (598)

BillBenter2026<$100

Sofya Lansere

Invested

$4.6

Value

PnL

+$0.4

Record

57%

19424-14373 (33797)

Research grade

NeutralSofya Lansere at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Sofya Lansere

13 of 20 top traders (65%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sofya Lansere wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.