Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Maria Sakkari
10 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Maria Sakkari (50%) · Maria Sakkari at 88¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Maria Sakkari
20
Maria Sakkari 50%
1 arb excluded
$20.1K
$-1.1K
92.3¢ → 87.5¢
-5% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralMaria Sakkari at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 20 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graziek99 | Maria Sakkariavg 95¢ | $6.5K | $5.6K | -$884.44 | 87% 463-69 (532) |
65 6512395314597884 | Maria Sakkariavg 90.7¢ | $3.7K | $3.7K | -$14.93 | 52% 2923-2744 (5667) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Maria Sakkariavg 83.6¢ | $3.1K | $3.5K | +$354.48 | 58% 48497-34661 (83158) |
| └ Maria Sakkari leg | Maria Sakkariavg 83.6¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | +$107.91 | |
| └ Carol Young Suh Lee leg | Carol Young Suh Leeavg 9.7¢ | $851.99 | $1.1K | +$246.57 | |
MO Momo63 | Maria Sakkariavg 91¢ | $3.0K | $2.7K | -$297 | 93% 897-63 (960) |
NO NotJump | Maria Sakkariavg 88.5¢ | $953.92 | $965.94 | +$12.01 | 43% 7723-10448 (18171) |
1L 1lovejump | Maria Sakkariavg 90¢ | $1.1K | $910.85 | +$13.73 | 53% 675-604 (1279) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Maria Sakkariavg 93.3¢ | $737.55 | $735.24 | -$2.31 | 52% 14022-12784 (26806) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Carol Young Suh Leeavg 18¢ | $534.5 | $534.5 | +$0 | 72% 6934-2737 (9671) |
38 38791873984189 | Maria Sakkariavg 88.8¢ | $564.78 | $509.19 | +$10.28 | 47% 12954-14535 (27489) |
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR | Carol Young Suh Leeavg 6.4¢ | $239.41 | $332.98 | +$93.57 | 52% 5697-5265 (10962) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Carol Young Suh Leeavg 19¢ | $141.73 | $134.27 | -$7.46 | 58% 43586-31701 (75287) |
 tradecraftCTR | Carol Young Suh Leeavg 10¢ | $109 | $114.45 | +$5.45 | 51% 6149-5871 (12020) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Carol Young Suh Leeavg 9¢ | $86.43 | $110.11 | +$23.69 | 48% 1149-1258 (2407) |
MY myxi<$100 | Maria Sakkariavg 81¢ | $65.09 | $65.49 | +$0.4 | 67% 392-197 (589) |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Maria Sakkariavg 89.7¢ | $60.79 | $45.25 | +$0.64 | 60% 4143-2783 (6926) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Carol Young Suh Leeavg 12.9¢ | $59.69 | $29.99 | -$29.7 | 54% 58111-50353 (108464) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Carol Young Suh Leeavg 5¢ | $17.74 | $26.6 | +$8.87 | 51% 17602-16613 (34215) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Carol Young Suh Leeavg 13¢ | $13 | $18 | +$5 | 47% 10048-11149 (21197) |
EU EulhunterCTR<$100 | Carol Young Suh Leeavg 9.4¢ | $14.96 | $15.07 | +$0.11 | 54% 5901-4950 (10851) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Maria Sakkariavg 80¢ | $4.9 | $5 | -$0.5 | 52% 7634-6911 (14545) |
0X 0x952718dF56Ab7955E0A0121a9E47fa8f52B6888b-1787761374187CTR<$100 | Carol Young Suh Leeavg 7¢ | $1.65 | $1.54 | -$0.12 | 15% 892-4893 (5785) |
Invested
$6,480.92
Value
$5.6K
PnL
-$884.44
Record
87%
463-69 (532)
Invested
$3,726.82
Value
$3.7K
PnL
-$14.93
Record
52%
2923-2744 (5667)
Invested
$3,138.52
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$354.48
Record
58%
48497-34661 (83158)
Both legs:
Invested
$3,003
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$297
Record
93%
897-63 (960)
Invested
$953.92
Value
$965.94
PnL
+$12.01
Record
43%
7723-10448 (18171)
Invested
$1,080.62
Value
$910.85
PnL
+$13.73
Record
53%
675-604 (1279)
Invested
$737.55
Value
$735.24
PnL
-$2.31
Record
52%
14022-12784 (26806)
Invested
$534.5
Value
$534.5
PnL
+$0
Record
72%
6934-2737 (9671)
Invested
$564.78
Value
$509.19
PnL
+$10.28
Record
47%
12954-14535 (27489)
Invested
$239.41
Value
$332.98
PnL
+$93.57
Record
52%
5697-5265 (10962)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$141.73
Value
$134.27
PnL
-$7.46
Record
58%
43586-31701 (75287)
tradecraftCTRInvested
$109
Value
$114.45
PnL
+$5.45
Record
51%
6149-5871 (12020)
Invested
$86.43
Value
$110.11
PnL
+$23.69
Record
48%
1149-1258 (2407)
Invested
$65.09
Value
$65.49
PnL
+$0.4
Record
67%
392-197 (589)
Invested
$60.79
Value
$45.25
PnL
+$0.64
Record
60%
4143-2783 (6926)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$59.69
Value
$29.99
PnL
-$29.7
Record
54%
58111-50353 (108464)
Invested
$17.74
Value
$26.6
PnL
+$8.87
Record
51%
17602-16613 (34215)
Invested
$13
Value
$18
PnL
+$5
Record
47%
10048-11149 (21197)
Invested
$14.96
Value
$15.07
PnL
+$0.11
Record
54%
5901-4950 (10851)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
52%
7634-6911 (14545)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$1.54
PnL
-$0.12
Record
15%
892-4893 (5785)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
graziek99
Maria Sakkari — $5.6K
6512395314597884
Maria Sakkari — $3.7K
UpTheBlues
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Momo63
Maria Sakkari — $2.7K
NotJump
Maria Sakkari — $965.94
1lovejump
Maria Sakkari — $910.85
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Maria Sakkari — $735.24
AnonymousUsername
CTRCarol Young Suh Lee — $534.5
38791873984189
Maria Sakkari — $509.19
CandleHammerDrums
CTRCarol Young Suh Lee — $332.98