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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| 38791873984189 | joseph00677 | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (5772–6954, n=12726) | 50% (10–10, n=20) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 68% (43–20, n=63) |
| Consensus PnL | $27K | $5.3M | $10.6M | $5.8M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #943 | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 |
| Sides with the consensus | 50% (66 of 133 open) | no open consensus position | 90% (146 of 163 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | Soccer −1 pts, n=391 | — | — | NBA −6 pts, n=93 |
| Settled positions, side won | 46% of 1801 at avg 45¢, ROI +1% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 18% (won 7% of 326) | 12% (won 0% of 2) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 3% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 64% (won 48% of 1149) | 6% (won 0% of 1) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 30% (won 57% of 63) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 9% (won 64% of 162) | 65% (won 73% of 11) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 54% (won 51% of 115) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 9% (won 90% of 164) | 18% (won 67% of 3) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
7 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | 38791873984189 | joseph00677 | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $1.1K | — | No $253K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House opposite sides · consensus No | No $4.9K | — | Yes $18K | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $241 | — | Yes $274K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $358 | — | No $114K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $425 | — | Yes $83K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $302 | — | Yes $31K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $1.2K | — | No $30K | — |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $829 | — | Yes $29K | — |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $476 | — | No $25K | — |