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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| AmericaFirst1 | beachboy4 | RN1 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 65% (2102–1132, n=3234) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 48% (12896–14023, n=26919) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) |
| Consensus PnL | $2.4K | $5.8M | $13.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #750 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 65% (13 of 20 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 47% (9 of 19 open) | 79% (57 of 72 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 98% of 1497 at avg 70¢, ROI +34% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 1% (won 52% of 21) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 16% (won 96% of 244) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 32% (won 97% of 482) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 50% (won 100% of 750) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | AmericaFirst1 | beachboy4 | RN1 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles vs. Commanders opposite sides · consensus Commanders | Eagles $519 | — | — | Commanders $1.0M |
| Spread: Commanders (-4.5) opposite sides · consensus Commanders | Eagles $236 | — | — | Commanders $32K |
| Spread: Eagles (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Eagles | Eagles $120 | — | Commanders $2.3K | — |
| Spread: Commanders (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Eagles | Eagles $59 | — | Commanders $26 | — |
| Spread: Commanders (-6.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | — | Commanders $3.6K | Commanders $161K |