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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BTCGambler24700gringo00BreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)72% (209–83, n=292)75% (6–2, n=8)45% (526–640, n=1166)
Consensus PnL$392K$3.5M$10.6M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #373was PM monthly #19PM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus81% (46 of 57 open)no open consensus position73% (72 of 98 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +39 pts n=90, ROI +42%
  • NHL +41 pts n=12, ROI +46%
  • Geopolitics +20 pts n=68, ROI +20%
none with 10+ settled
  • NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
Weakest topic———
Settled positions, side won91% of 258 at avg 63¢, ROI +36%86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25%98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢12% (won 61% of 31)0%10% (won 85% of 53)
Entries 30–50¢17% (won 89% of 44)0%36% (won 98% of 192)
Entries 50–70¢30% (won 92% of 77)100% (won 86% of 7)35% (won 99% of 187)
Entries 70¢ and up41% (won 100% of 106)0%20% (won 100% of 107)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

6 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBTCGambler24700gringo00BreakTheBank
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $264—No $252K
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $370—No $184K
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $64—Yes $73K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $6.9K—Yes $272K
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $24K—Yes $4.4K
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $1.5K—Yes $20K
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $602—Yes $2.3K
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $466—Yes $193
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus No
Yes $566—Yes $28