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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BikesAreTheBikes | RN1 | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 26% (609–1728, n=2337) | 48% (12896–14023, n=26919) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) |
| Consensus PnL | $62K | $13.4M | $5.8M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #541 + pinned | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 49% (61 of 124 open) | 58% (15 of 26 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 80% (57 of 71 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Weather −5 pts, n=16 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 48% of 1353 at avg 35¢, ROI +9% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 57% (won 18% of 769) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 12% (won 66% of 157) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 11% (won 85% of 151) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 20% (won 97% of 276) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BikesAreTheBikes | RN1 | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $7 | — | — | No $118K |
| Spread: Commanders (-6.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | Commanders $3.6K | — | Commanders $161K |
| Spread: Commanders (-4.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | Commanders $125 | — | Commanders $32K |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $51 | — | — | Yes $14K |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $105 | — | Yes $68 | — |